Analyzing SARS-CoV-2 case numbers and clustering to predict a nursing home outbreak

IF 3.4 3区 医学 Q2 GERIATRICS & GERONTOLOGY
Yasin Abul, Kevin McConeghy, Frank DeVone, Christopher Halladay, Stefan Gravenstein, James Rudolph
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic devastated nursing homes, highlighting the urgent need for effective outbreak control measures. This study analyzed twice-weekly PCR surveillance data from 134 Veteran Affairs Community Living Centers (December 2021-June 2022) to identify early predictors of SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks. Among 16,353 residents (mean age 74, 96% male, 68% white), we identified 1,868 infections and evaluated neighborhood ward-level case counts and their association with subsequent infections over two-week periods. Epidemic unit-days with no initial cases had an 87.49% likelihood of remaining case-free, while those with ≥ 4 initial cases demonstrated a 38.5% probability of developing ≥ 4 additional cases. These findings indicate that early case clusters strongly predict larger outbreaks, underscoring the importance of rapid detection and intervention. Study limitations include demographic homogeneity and reliance on frequent PCR testing, potentially limiting generalizability. This research provides a valuable framework for refining outbreak definitions and improving infection control strategies for respiratory virus outbreaks in nursing homes.

分析SARS-CoV-2病例数和聚类以预测养老院爆发
2019冠状病毒病大流行重创了养老院,凸显了采取有效疫情控制措施的迫切需要。本研究分析了134个退伍军人事务社区生活中心(2021年12月至2022年6月)每周两次的PCR监测数据,以确定SARS-CoV-2爆发的早期预测因子。在16,353名居民(平均年龄74岁,96%男性,68%白人)中,我们确定了1,868例感染,并评估了两周内社区病房级病例计数及其与后续感染的关系。无初始病例的流行单位日无病例的可能性为87.49%,而初始病例≥4例的流行单位日发生≥4例额外病例的可能性为38.5%。这些发现表明,早期病例聚集性很强地预示着更大规模的疫情,强调了快速发现和干预的重要性。研究的局限性包括人口统计学的同质性和对频繁PCR检测的依赖,这可能限制了通用性。本研究为完善疗养院呼吸道病毒暴发的暴发定义和改进感染控制策略提供了有价值的框架。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
7.90
自引率
5.00%
发文量
283
审稿时长
1 months
期刊介绍: Aging clinical and experimental research offers a multidisciplinary forum on the progressing field of gerontology and geriatrics. The areas covered by the journal include: biogerontology, neurosciences, epidemiology, clinical gerontology and geriatric assessment, social, economical and behavioral gerontology. “Aging clinical and experimental research” appears bimonthly and publishes review articles, original papers and case reports.
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