Assessing the spatiotemporal effects of human activity intensity on ecosystem health using VORS and spatial models: Evidence from the e Yellow River Deltaeconomic zone

Abstract

Understanding how coastal human activities influence ecosystem health is critical for sustainable deltaic region management amid rapid industrialization and environmental change. This study evaluates ecosystem health dynamics in China's Yellow River Delta Economic Zone (YRDEZ) from 2005 to 2022 by integrating the Vigor–Organization–Resilience–Services (VORS) model with a Coastal Human Activity Intensity (CHAI) framework incorporating marine aquaculture, petroleum extraction, and port development impacts. The novelty lies in high-resolution (500m) coupling of coastal ecosystem performance with anthropogenic pressures using machine learning algorithms (Random Forest and XGBoost) alongside Geographic Detector and Geographically Weighted Regression to capture saltwater intrusion and sediment dynamics.Findings reveal intensifying negative spatial correlations between CHAI and Ecosystem Health Index (EHI), with coastal urban centers (Dongying, Binzhou) showing highest CHAI and lowest EHI values. Yellow River wetlands exhibit moderate EHI but extreme sensitivity to hydrological modifications. Machine learning models identified salinity gradient, sediment load, and petroleum extraction as dominant explanatory factors (73% variance) for coastal EHI distribution. Aquaculture zones display unique temporal patterns with initial ecosystem enhancement followed by cumulative degradation. A novel Coastal Vulnerability Index successfully predicts ecosystem thresholds with 89% accuracy.Results provide evidence-based guidance for integrated coastal zone management and Blue Economy development in deltaic regions facing industrial expansion and sea-level rise challenges.