What could have been? A synthetic control evaluation of the effect of the Economic and Monetary Union on the net external wealth of periphery member states

IF 3.3 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Systems Pub Date : 2025-02-20 DOI:10.1016/j.ecosys.2025.101293

João Alcobia , Nuno Sobreira , Ricardo Cabral

引用次数: 0

Abstract

This study investigates whether the Euro Area periphery member states would have been wealthier in 2010 had they not participated in the Economic and Monetary Union, as implied by the optimum currency area literature and the 1977 MacDougall report prepared for the European Commission. Using a synthetic control method, we found that by 2010, periphery member states' net international investment positions would show an improvement of, on weighted average, 41 % of GDP, which is equivalent to a combined 2.1 trillion of 2010 euros. The econometric results are robust to standard synthetic control method sensitivity tests. Finally, we discuss why the Economic and Monetary Union may have led to such a severe deterioration in the net external wealth position of the periphery member states.

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会发生什么呢？经济与货币联盟对外围成员国净外部财富影响的综合控制评价

本研究调查了欧元区外围成员国是否会在2010年更富有，如果他们没有参加经济和货币联盟，正如最佳货币区文献和1977年为欧盟委员会准备的麦克杜格尔报告所暗示的那样。使用综合控制方法，我们发现，到2010年，外围成员国的净国际投资头寸将显示出改善，加权平均为GDP的41% %，相当于2010年合计2.1万亿欧元。计量经济学结果对标准综合控制方法的敏感性试验具有鲁棒性。最后，我们讨论了为什么经济与货币联盟可能导致外围成员国的净外部财富状况如此严重恶化。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Economic Systems ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

4.90

自引率

0.00%

发文量

审稿时长

48 days

期刊介绍： Economic Systems is a refereed journal for the analysis of causes and consequences of the significant institutional variety prevailing among developed, developing, and emerging economies, as well as attempts at and proposals for their reform. The journal is open to micro and macro contributions, theoretical as well as empirical, the latter to analyze related topics against the background of country or region-specific experiences. In this respect, Economic Systems retains its long standing interest in the emerging economies of Central and Eastern Europe and other former transition economies, but also encourages contributions that cover any part of the world, including Asia, Latin America, the Middle East, or Africa.