Optimizing crop configuration with genetic algorithm to improve water-energy-food-economy nexus in Southern Xinjiang

Abstract

The arid regions of Northwest China are facing significant challenges in agriculture. Optimizing crop configuration contributes to improved environmental stewardship under the Water-Energy-Food Nexus framework, but economic viability of such systems remains to be quantified. Here, we proposed and implemented an extended Water-Energy-Food-Economy (WEFE) Nexus model to optimize the trade-offs between productivity, ecological sustainability and economic viability in Northwest China. We evaluated the WEFE Nexus of crop production in Wensu County, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region from 2004 to 2023, and optimized crop configuration under four scenario considering wheat planting policy relaxation and technological advancements. During the study years, the agricultural energy consumption, grain production, production value, and production efficiency have increased by 87 %, 146 %, 384 %, and 69 % respectively, reflecting complex crop-policy-market-technology interplay. Under the scenario combining improved irrigation technology with relaxed wheat planting policy, the WEFE Nexus indicators showed potential improvements of 10–40 %. With an equilibrium solution, the grain production increased by 33 %, production value by 5 %, production efficiency by 13 %, and irrigation water requirement and energy consumption reduced by 2 % and 0.2 %. We suggest that the model effectively optimizes management across multiple indicators. Economic benefits and the extent of technology adoption have led farmers to favor cotton and maize, while the government has mandated wheat planting areas through policy. Our results identified equilibrium strategies for agricultural sustainability in Northwest China. These include improving wheat irrigation efficiency, maintaining cotton areas, and replacing wheat with maize and rice.