Impact of energy transition policy and technology shocks on the coal power workforce and China's economic development

Abstract

Energy transition presents both challenges and opportunities for the coal power workforce in carbon-intensive industries. This study integrates coal power, renewable energy, and workforce employment transition into a New Keynesian framework by constructing a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. The model evaluates the short- and long-term impacts of renewable energy technology (RET), carbon tax policy (CTP), carbon emission reduction technology (CERT), and renewable energy subsidy policy (RESP) on the coal power workforce and macroeconomic performance. Simulation results indicate that, in the short term, improvements in RET increase overall economic output, investment, and inflation, while reducing coal power workforce output, employment, and wages. CTP decreases total output and consumption and raises production costs, with a noticeable time lag in its impact on coal power workforce employment. CERT and RESP reduce coal power workforce output and increase employment in the renewable energy sector. In the long term, energy transition policies and technologies facilitate varying degrees of employment transition within the coal power workforce and promote overall economic development. These findings improve the understanding of how coordinated policy and technological measures can support economic decarbonisation and advance environmental sustainability.