Metcalfe’s Law and its inversion: digital network expansion and systemic risk

IF 4.7 Q2 COMPUTER SCIENCE, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

AI & Society Pub Date : 2025-03-12 DOI:10.1007/s00146-025-02239-4

Dean Curran, Elizabeth Cameron

{"title":"Metcalfe’s Law and its inversion: digital network expansion and systemic risk","authors":"Dean Curran, Elizabeth Cameron","doi":"10.1007/s00146-025-02239-4","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper examines contemporary digital insecurity through a critical confrontation with Metcalfe’s Law. Metcalfe’s Law—which states that the value of a network grows proportionally to the square of the size of the network—has been cited as a key reason for the astronomical growth in user base and market values of digital companies. This paper proposes a corresponding tendency alongside Metcalfe’s Law, namely that, as digital networks grow in size, there is a tendency towards a corresponding growth in systemic risk. Building on theories of systemic risk, this paper identifies key factors intensifying systemic risk, including: increasing network size increases the complexity and ‘attack surface’ of a network; increasing network size increases the ‘target-rich’ nature of the network; and the ‘layered’ robustness of the internet infrastructure in cases of cyber-security failures can provide an undamaged carrier of digital systemic risk. This paper then proceeds to show how developments in generative AI threaten to massively amplify the risks of ever-expanding digital networks.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47165,"journal":{"name":"AI & Society","volume":"40 6","pages":"4575 - 4587"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7000,"publicationDate":"2025-03-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"AI & Society","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00146-025-02239-4","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"COMPUTER SCIENCE, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Abstract

This paper examines contemporary digital insecurity through a critical confrontation with Metcalfe’s Law. Metcalfe’s Law—which states that the value of a network grows proportionally to the square of the size of the network—has been cited as a key reason for the astronomical growth in user base and market values of digital companies. This paper proposes a corresponding tendency alongside Metcalfe’s Law, namely that, as digital networks grow in size, there is a tendency towards a corresponding growth in systemic risk. Building on theories of systemic risk, this paper identifies key factors intensifying systemic risk, including: increasing network size increases the complexity and ‘attack surface’ of a network; increasing network size increases the ‘target-rich’ nature of the network; and the ‘layered’ robustness of the internet infrastructure in cases of cyber-security failures can provide an undamaged carrier of digital systemic risk. This paper then proceeds to show how developments in generative AI threaten to massively amplify the risks of ever-expanding digital networks.

查看原文本刊更多论文

梅特卡夫定律及其反转：数字网络扩张与系统风险

本文通过与梅特卡夫定律的关键对抗来审视当代数字不安全。梅特卡夫定律（Metcalfe’s law）指出，网络价值的增长与网络规模的平方成正比。这个定律被认为是数字公司用户基础和市场价值天文数字增长的关键原因。本文提出了与梅特卡夫定律相对应的趋势，即随着数字网络规模的增长，系统风险也有相应增长的趋势。在系统风险理论的基础上，本文确定了加剧系统风险的关键因素，包括：网络规模的增加增加了网络的复杂性和“攻击面”；增加网络规模增加了网络的“目标丰富”性质；在网络安全失效的情况下，互联网基础设施的“分层”健壮性可以提供一个完好无损的数字系统风险载体。然后，本文进一步展示了生成式人工智能的发展如何威胁到不断扩大的数字网络的风险。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

求助全文

约1分钟内获得全文求助全文

来源期刊

AI & Society COMPUTER SCIENCE, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE-

CiteScore

8.00

自引率

20.00%

发文量

257

期刊介绍： AI & Society: Knowledge, Culture and Communication, is an International Journal publishing refereed scholarly articles, position papers, debates, short communications, and reviews of books and other publications. Established in 1987, the Journal focuses on societal issues including the design, use, management, and policy of information, communications and new media technologies, with a particular emphasis on cultural, social, cognitive, economic, ethical, and philosophical implications. AI & Society has a broad scope and is strongly interdisciplinary. We welcome contributions and participation from researchers and practitioners in a variety of fields including information technologies, humanities, social sciences, arts and sciences. This includes broader societal and cultural impacts, for example on governance, security, sustainability, identity, inclusion, working life, corporate and community welfare, and well-being of people. Co-authored articles from diverse disciplines are encouraged. AI & Society seeks to promote an understanding of the potential, transformative impacts and critical consequences of pervasive technology for societies. Technological innovations, including new sciences such as biotech, nanotech and neuroscience, offer a great potential for societies, but also pose existential risk. Rooted in the human-centred tradition of science and technology, the Journal acts as a catalyst, promoter and facilitator of engagement with diversity of voices and over-the-horizon issues of arts, science, technology and society. AI & Society expects that, in keeping with the ethos of the journal, submissions should provide a substantial and explicit argument on the societal dimension of research, particularly the benefits, impacts and implications for society. This may include factors such as trust, biases, privacy, reliability, responsibility, and competence of AI systems. Such arguments should be validated by critical comment on current research in this area. Curmudgeon Corner will retain its opinionated ethos. The journal is in three parts: a) full length scholarly articles; b) strategic ideas, critical reviews and reflections; c) Student Forum is for emerging researchers and new voices to communicate their ongoing research to the wider academic community, mentored by the Journal Advisory Board; Book Reviews and News; Curmudgeon Corner for the opinionated. Papers in the Original Section may include original papers, which are underpinned by theoretical, methodological, conceptual or philosophical foundations. The Open Forum Section may include strategic ideas, critical reviews and potential implications for society of current research. Network Research Section papers make substantial contributions to theoretical and methodological foundations within societal domains. These will be multi-authored papers that include a summary of the contribution of each author to the paper. Original, Open Forum and Network papers are peer reviewed. The Student Forum Section may include theoretical, methodological, and application orientations of ongoing research including case studies, as well as, contextual action research experiences. Papers in this section are normally single-authored and are also formally reviewed. Curmudgeon Corner is a short opinionated column on trends in technology, arts, science and society, commenting emphatically on issues of concern to the research community and wider society. Normal word length: Original and Network Articles 10k, Open Forum 8k, Student Forum 6k, Curmudgeon 1k. The exception to the co-author limit of Original and Open Forum (4), Network (10), Student (3) and Curmudgeon (2) articles will be considered for their special contributions. Please do not send your submissions by email but use the "Submit manuscript" button. NOTE TO AUTHORS: The Journal expects its authors to include, in their submissions: a) An acknowledgement of the pre-accept/pre-publication versions of their manuscripts on non-commercial and academic sites. b) Images: obtain permissions from the copyright holder/original sources. c) Formal permission from their ethics committees when conducting studies with people.