Forecasting silver demand and supply by 2030: Impact of silver-intensive photovoltaic cells and sectoral competition

IF 10.9 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL

Resources Conservation and Recycling Pub Date : 2025-08-27 DOI:10.1016/j.resconrec.2025.108562

Vittoria Cattaneo , Justine Mast , Isadora Hackenhaar , Steve Nardone , Stijn Scheerlinck , Jan Mertens , Jo Dewulf

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Abstract

The availability of raw materials is a key challenge for the expansion of solar energy to the levels needed to mitigate climate change. Therefore, understanding material demand and supply chains is crucial to avoid bottlenecks and enable the transition to sustainable energy. This research examines the global silver requirements of the photovoltaic industry under various deployment and technology trends, along with silver demand from competing industries, to provide a comprehensive supply-demand outlook. The results indicate that by 2030, supply may meet only 62–70 % of demand, which is projected at 48,000–54,000 t/y. The solar industry is expected to be the fastest-growing source of silver demand, reaching 10,000–14,000 t/y (29–41 % of supply). Despite slower growth, demand from competing sectors may rise to 38,000–40,000 t/y. As 72 % of primary silver is produced as co-product, significant expansion of primary output by 2030 is unlikely. Reducing silver consumption in all applications, identifying suitable substitutes, and expanding secondary production are essential to mitigate supply risks.

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预测2030年白银需求和供应：银密集型光伏电池和行业竞争的影响

原材料的可用性是将太阳能扩展到缓解气候变化所需水平的关键挑战。因此，了解材料需求和供应链对于避免瓶颈和实现向可持续能源的过渡至关重要。本研究考察了全球光伏产业在不同部署和技术趋势下的白银需求，以及竞争行业的白银需求，以提供一个全面的供需前景。结果表明，到2030年，供应可能只能满足需求的62 - 70%，预计为48,000-54,000吨/年。预计太阳能行业将成为白银需求增长最快的来源，达到每年1万至1.4万吨（占供应量的29 - 41%）。尽管增长放缓，但竞争行业的需求可能会上升至3.8万至4万吨/年。由于72%的原银是作为副产品生产的，因此到2030年原银产量不太可能大幅增长。减少白银在所有应用中的消耗，确定合适的替代品，扩大二次生产对于减轻供应风险至关重要。

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来源期刊

Resources Conservation and Recycling 环境科学-工程：环境

CiteScore

22.90

自引率

6.10%

发文量

625

审稿时长

23 days

期刊介绍： The journal Resources, Conservation & Recycling welcomes contributions from research, which consider sustainable management and conservation of resources. The journal prioritizes understanding the transformation processes crucial for transitioning toward more sustainable production and consumption systems. It highlights technological, economic, institutional, and policy aspects related to specific resource management practices such as conservation, recycling, and resource substitution, as well as broader strategies like improving resource productivity and restructuring production and consumption patterns. Contributions may address regional, national, or international scales and can range from individual resources or technologies to entire sectors or systems. Authors are encouraged to explore scientific and methodological issues alongside practical, environmental, and economic implications. However, manuscripts focusing solely on laboratory experiments without discussing their broader implications will not be considered for publication in the journal.