Modeling stakeholder interactions for post-disaster electric power restoration: A multi-agent and game-theoretic approach

IF 7.4 2区经济学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Energy Research & Social Science Pub Date : 2025-08-28 DOI:10.1016/j.erss.2025.104307

Rui Shao , Chao Fan

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Efficient post-disaster electric power restoration, under resource constraints, is essential for economic continuity and recovery. While existing studies emphasize the technical feasibility of power restoration, they frequently overlook how households' responses and utility companies' strategic priorities either reinforce or obstruct utility-led restoration efforts. To this end, this study presents a multi-agent simulation approach that integrates hazard modeling, grid fragility, household-level tolerance regarding outages, and a stochastic game-theoretic decision process to model stakeholder interactions and the effects on the efficiency of utility-led electric power restoration. The approach evaluates utilities' daily decisions in allocating labor resources for repair and recovery between economic and residential needs, alongside households' adaptation and feedback, which, in turn, affect the consumption and workforce availability. The approach is validated with field data collected from Hurricane Harvey in Harris County, Texas in 2017. The results show that household decision-making can act as a powerful feedback mechanism, shaping restoration trajectories and the ultimate outcomes of economic recovery. Specifically, a flexible “conditional” cooperation model, where households adjust their behaviors based on the utility's actions, proved most effective in the process of electric power restoration process. Paired with residential-first repair, the model yields a 65.6 % power restoration and 25.9 % economic recovery within 30 days. In contrast, a business-focused strategy, which prioritize electric restoration in industrial sectors, is often combined with low household cooperation and yields significantly worse outcomes, with only 31.8 % power restoration and 7.2 % economic recovery. Our results consistently show that prioritizing residential areas is optimal for both power restoration and long-term economic recovery. This socio-technical framework offers policymakers, utility managers, and community stakeholders a robust and replicable tool to anticipate the cascading consequences of their decisions, enhancing the energy system resilience and effectiveness in disaster recovery strategies.

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灾后电力恢复的利益相关者互动建模：一个多智能体和博弈论方法

在资源有限的情况下，有效的灾后电力恢复对经济的连续性和恢复至关重要。虽然现有的研究强调电力恢复的技术可行性，但它们往往忽视了家庭的反应和公用事业公司的战略重点如何加强或阻碍公用事业主导的恢复工作。为此，本研究提出了一种多智能体仿真方法，该方法集成了危害建模、电网脆弱性、家庭对停电的容忍度，以及一个随机博弈论决策过程，以模拟利益相关者的相互作用以及对公用事业主导的电力恢复效率的影响。该方法评估了公用事业公司在经济和居民需求之间分配维修和恢复劳动力资源的日常决策，以及家庭的适应和反馈，这反过来又影响了消费和劳动力可用性。该方法通过2017年德克萨斯州哈里斯县飓风哈维收集的现场数据进行了验证。结果表明，家庭决策可以作为一个强大的反馈机制，塑造经济复苏的轨迹和最终结果。具体而言，在电力恢复过程中，一种灵活的“有条件”合作模式被证明是最有效的，即家庭根据公用事业公司的行动来调整自己的行为。与住宅优先修复相结合，该模型在30天内产生65.6%的电力恢复和25.9%的经济恢复。相比之下，以商业为中心的战略，优先考虑工业部门的电力恢复，往往与低家庭合作相结合，结果明显更差，只有31.8%的电力恢复和7.2%的经济复苏。我们的研究结果一致表明，优先考虑居民区对于电力恢复和长期经济复苏都是最佳的。这一社会技术框架为政策制定者、公用事业管理者和社区利益相关者提供了一个强大的、可复制的工具，以预测其决策的连锁后果，增强能源系统在灾难恢复战略中的弹性和有效性。

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来源期刊

Energy Research & Social Science ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES-

CiteScore

14.00

自引率

16.40%

发文量

441

审稿时长

55 days

期刊介绍： Energy Research & Social Science (ERSS) is a peer-reviewed international journal that publishes original research and review articles examining the relationship between energy systems and society. ERSS covers a range of topics revolving around the intersection of energy technologies, fuels, and resources on one side and social processes and influences - including communities of energy users, people affected by energy production, social institutions, customs, traditions, behaviors, and policies - on the other. Put another way, ERSS investigates the social system surrounding energy technology and hardware. ERSS is relevant for energy practitioners, researchers interested in the social aspects of energy production or use, and policymakers. Energy Research & Social Science (ERSS) provides an interdisciplinary forum to discuss how social and technical issues related to energy production and consumption interact. Energy production, distribution, and consumption all have both technical and human components, and the latter involves the human causes and consequences of energy-related activities and processes as well as social structures that shape how people interact with energy systems. Energy analysis, therefore, needs to look beyond the dimensions of technology and economics to include these social and human elements.