Using an operational air pollution forecast system for evaluation of local emission abatement policy scenarios

Abstract

Effective policy to reduce urban air pollution requires the identification of appropriate solutions to achieve it. Where funding is limited, interventions should result from a previous analysis of strategic effectiveness. In this work, an air pollution forecasting system was used to assess the effectiveness of strategies for reducing emissions from domestic furnaces; the system facilitates forecasts of average hourly concentrations of pollutants, down to street scale (pedestrian level). The analysis was carried out for a city in which exceedances of the PM₁₀ concentration are recorded, due to emissions from domestic furnaces burning solid fuels. A criterion for identification of local pollution hotspots was proposed, determined as part of the calculations for current emission data (base scenario). The effectiveness of four potential emission reduction scenarios was evaluated. The first two scenarios concern the elimination of a specific centile of the highest emitters among domestic furnaces. Two further scenarios included a reduction of the same total number of sources; however, the distance from the pollution hotspots areas identified in the baseline scenario was used as the emitter elimination selection criterion. The results indicate that for the study area the implementation of any of the scenarios considered would allow the elimination of all existing hotspot areas. Nevertheless, the results indicate variation in the effectiveness of individual scenarios on a city-wide scale in terms of the reduction in the number of exceedances of hourly and daily concentration limits, the impact on air quality and the population exposed to excessive levels.