Unpacking Outcomes: A quasi-experimental study on the effectiveness of China’s major function-oriented zone planning

IF 9.2 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ECOLOGY

Landscape and Urban Planning Pub Date : 2025-08-25 DOI:10.1016/j.landurbplan.2025.105482

Kaiyang Jia , Sujuan Zhong , Xianjin Huang

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

The competing demands for land resources among urbanization, food production, and ecological preservation present a critical challenge for sustainable development in developing nations. China’s Major Function-Oriented Zone Planning (MFZP), launched in 2010, represents a pioneering national-scale zoning planning to address these competing interests. This study provides the first comprehensive empirical assessment of MFZP’s effectiveness through a quasi-experimental analysis using county-level panel data from 2000 to 2020. Employing a Propensity Score Matching with Difference-in-Difference approach, we compare land development patterns between restricted and key development zones with similar baseline characteristics. Results demonstrate that MFZP successfully achieved its primary objective: restricted development zones exhibited significantly lower development intensity compared to matched key development zones, without showing significant negative impacts on per capita GDP growth. The effectiveness of the plan implementation varies notably across China’s economic regions and among restricted zones with different functional priorities. These findings validate the feasibility of large-scale spatial planning in balancing development needs and offer evidence-based insights for developing countries seeking to implement similar land-use management strategies.

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解包结果：中国主体功能区规划有效性的准实验研究

城市化、粮食生产和生态保护三者对土地资源的竞争对发展中国家的可持续发展提出了严峻的挑战。中国于2010年推出的主体功能区规划（MFZP）是解决这些利益冲突的全国性分区规划的先驱。本研究利用2000 - 2020年的县级面板数据，首次对保税区的有效性进行了准实验分析。采用倾向得分匹配和差中差方法，我们比较了具有相似基线特征的限制开发区和重点开发区之间的土地开发模式。结果表明，MFZP成功地实现了其主要目标：限制开发区的开发强度明显低于匹配的重点开发区，但对人均GDP增长没有显著的负面影响。规划实施的效果在中国不同经济区域和不同功能重点的限制区域之间存在明显差异。这些发现证实了大规模空间规划在平衡发展需求方面的可行性，并为寻求实施类似土地使用管理战略的发展中国家提供了基于证据的见解。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Landscape and Urban Planning 环境科学-生态学

CiteScore

15.20

自引率

6.60%

发文量

232

审稿时长

6 months

期刊介绍： Landscape and Urban Planning is an international journal that aims to enhance our understanding of landscapes and promote sustainable solutions for landscape change. The journal focuses on landscapes as complex social-ecological systems that encompass various spatial and temporal dimensions. These landscapes possess aesthetic, natural, and cultural qualities that are valued by individuals in different ways, leading to actions that alter the landscape. With increasing urbanization and the need for ecological and cultural sensitivity at various scales, a multidisciplinary approach is necessary to comprehend and align social and ecological values for landscape sustainability. The journal believes that combining landscape science with planning and design can yield positive outcomes for both people and nature.