Real exchange rate and net trade dynamics: Financial and trade shocks

IF 4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-08-13 DOI:10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104141

Marcos Mac Mullen , Soo Kyung Woo

引用次数: 0

Abstract

This paper studies the drivers of the US real exchange rate (RER), with a particular focus on its comovement with net trade (NT) flows. We consider the entire spectrum of frequencies, as the low-frequency variation accounts for 62 and 64 percent of the unconditional variance of the RER and NT, respectively. We develop a generalization of the standard international business cycle model that successfully rationalizes the joint dynamics of the RER and NT while accounting for the major puzzles of the RER. We find that, while financial shocks are necessary to capture high frequency variation in the RER, trade shocks are essential for the lower frequency fluctuations.

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实际汇率和净贸易动态：金融和贸易冲击

本文研究了美国实际汇率（RER）的驱动因素，特别关注其与净贸易流量（NT）的变动。我们考虑了整个频谱，因为低频变化分别占RER和NT无条件方差的62%和64%。我们对标准的国际经济周期模型进行了概括，成功地合理化了RER和NT的联合动态，同时解释了RER的主要难题。我们发现，金融冲击是反映RER高频波动的必要条件，而贸易冲击则是反映较低频波动的必要条件。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of International Economics ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

5.80

自引率

6.10%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Journal of International Economics is intended to serve as the primary outlet for theoretical and empirical research in all areas of international economics. These include, but are not limited to the following: trade patterns, commercial policy; international institutions; exchange rates; open economy macroeconomics; international finance; international factor mobility. The Journal especially encourages the submission of articles which are empirical in nature, or deal with issues of open economy macroeconomics and international finance. Theoretical work submitted to the Journal should be original in its motivation or modelling structure. Empirical analysis should be based on a theoretical framework, and should be capable of replication.