Post-pandemic public transport resilience and mode shift dynamics in India

IF 7.7 1区工程技术 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Transportation Research Part D-transport and Environment Pub Date : 2025-08-26 DOI:10.1016/j.trd.2025.104968

Shahiq Ahmad Wani, Ranju Mohan

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted urban travel, with conflicting perspectives on the permanence of these changes. This study analyses data from 48,839 respondents across twelve diverse Indian cities, using a mixed-methods approach, including machine learning (ML) and Double Machine Learning (DML) to examine pre- and post-pandemic mode choice dynamics at aggregate and city-specific levels. The ML analysis identified fundamental life circumstances as the primary predictors of mode choice. The DML analysis revealed that while public transport (PT) demonstrated significant resilience, powerful behavioural inertia persists, and specific service failures causally deter PT adoption. Pre-pandemic private vehicle use is causally linked to a lower likelihood of shifting to PT. Furthermore, safety and comfort issues, such as station cleanliness and staff professionalism, are causally linked to negative passenger perceptions. The study highlights significant city-specific variations and informs targeted, actionable, evidence-based policy recommendations for developing more resilient and environmentally sustainable urban transport systems.

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大流行后印度公共交通弹性和模式转变动态

2019冠状病毒病大流行扰乱了城市交通，人们对这些变化的持久性看法不一。本研究分析了来自印度12个不同城市的48,839名受访者的数据，使用混合方法，包括机器学习（ML）和双机器学习（DML），在总体和城市特定层面检查大流行前和大流行后的模式选择动态。ML分析确定了基本生活环境作为模式选择的主要预测因素。DML分析显示，虽然公共交通（PT）表现出显著的弹性，但强大的行为惯性仍然存在，特定的服务失败导致了PT的采用。大流行前的私家车使用与转向PT的可能性较低有因果关系。此外，安全和舒适问题，如车站清洁度和工作人员的专业程度，与乘客的负面看法有因果关系。该研究强调了城市特有的显著差异，并为发展更具弹性和环境可持续性的城市交通系统提供了有针对性、可操作、基于证据的政策建议。

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来源期刊

Transportation Research Part D-transport and Environment 工程技术-运输科技

CiteScore

14.40

自引率

9.20%

发文量

314

审稿时长

39 days

期刊介绍： Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment focuses on original research exploring the environmental impacts of transportation, policy responses to these impacts, and their implications for transportation system design, planning, and management. The journal comprehensively covers the interaction between transportation and the environment, ranging from local effects on specific geographical areas to global implications such as natural resource depletion and atmospheric pollution. We welcome research papers across all transportation modes, including maritime, air, and land transportation, assessing their environmental impacts broadly. Papers addressing both mobile aspects and transportation infrastructure are considered. The journal prioritizes empirical findings and policy responses of regulatory, planning, technical, or fiscal nature. Articles are policy-driven, accessible, and applicable to readers from diverse disciplines, emphasizing relevance and practicality. We encourage interdisciplinary submissions and welcome contributions from economically developing and advanced countries alike, reflecting our international orientation.