Analysis of marine oil spill accidents using a human-centered approach

IF 7.7 1区工程技术 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Transportation Research Part D-transport and Environment Pub Date : 2025-08-26 DOI:10.1016/j.trd.2025.104963

Bin Han , Shiqi Fan

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Global shipping, responsible for 90% of trade, is a primary carbon emitter. Oil spills from accidents deteriorate environmental damage and hinder shipping decarbonization. This study analyzes maritime oil spill risk factors and their interdependencies, aiming to develop effective preventive strategies. First, common risk factors in oil spills were identified via comprehensive literature reviews and global accident reports. A data-driven Bayesian Network is then constructed, incorporating human factors into maritime pollution accident analysis using Tree Augmented Network (TAN) and LASSO algorithms. Next, sensitivity analysis and model validation are conducted to explore critical risk influencing factors affecting pollution levels in ship accidents. The results indicate that the number of seafarers onboard significantly influences low and moderate pollution accidents, while ship damage is the primary cause leading to severe pollution. The findings explain ship oil spill risks from a human-centered perspective, enabling maritime stakeholders to develop management strategies to reduce oil spill pollution.

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以人为本的海洋溢油事故分析

占全球贸易90%的全球航运业是主要的碳排放源。事故造成的石油泄漏加剧了环境破坏，阻碍了航运脱碳。本研究分析海上溢油风险因素及其相互依存关系，旨在制定有效的预防策略。首先，通过综合文献综述和全球事故报告确定了石油泄漏的常见风险因素。然后构建了一个数据驱动的贝叶斯网络，使用树增强网络（TAN）和LASSO算法将人为因素纳入海上污染事故分析。其次，进行敏感性分析和模型验证，探索影响船舶事故污染水平的关键风险影响因素。结果表明：船员数量对轻、中度污染事故影响显著，船舶损坏是导致重度污染事故的主要原因；研究结果从以人为本的角度解释了船舶溢油风险，使海事利益相关者能够制定管理策略以减少溢油污染。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Transportation Research Part D-transport and Environment 工程技术-运输科技

CiteScore

14.40

自引率

9.20%

发文量

314

审稿时长

39 days

期刊介绍： Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment focuses on original research exploring the environmental impacts of transportation, policy responses to these impacts, and their implications for transportation system design, planning, and management. The journal comprehensively covers the interaction between transportation and the environment, ranging from local effects on specific geographical areas to global implications such as natural resource depletion and atmospheric pollution. We welcome research papers across all transportation modes, including maritime, air, and land transportation, assessing their environmental impacts broadly. Papers addressing both mobile aspects and transportation infrastructure are considered. The journal prioritizes empirical findings and policy responses of regulatory, planning, technical, or fiscal nature. Articles are policy-driven, accessible, and applicable to readers from diverse disciplines, emphasizing relevance and practicality. We encourage interdisciplinary submissions and welcome contributions from economically developing and advanced countries alike, reflecting our international orientation.