Policies can accelerate EV diffusion by enhancing consumer expectations of future prevalence

IF 7.7 1区工程技术 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Transportation Research Part D-transport and Environment Pub Date : 2025-08-26 DOI:10.1016/j.trd.2025.104964

Tomoya Akiyama, Tatsuya Kameda

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

The early stages of electric vehicle (EV) adoption face a classic chicken-and-egg dilemma: EVs are inconvenient without sufficient public chargers, while installing chargers is unprofitable with too few EVs. Government policies may help break this cycle by fostering optimistic expectations about future EV diffusion. We conducted a randomized controlled pre-post survey experiment with 500 Tokyo residents, where only treatment groups received information about the city’s zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) sales target and a new EV-ready building code requiring charger installation in new apartment complexes. Results show that exposure to this policy information increased participants’ willingness to purchase a ZEV—even among those not directly affected by the policies. Mediation analysis indicates the effect was driven by enhanced optimism about future ZEV adoption. These findings highlight the critical role of consumer expectations in shaping the effectiveness of EV policies and underscore the value of broadly communicating policy initiatives to accelerate EV adoption.

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政策可以通过提高消费者对未来流行率的预期来加速电动汽车的扩散

电动汽车（EV）采用的早期阶段面临着一个经典的先有鸡还是先有蛋的困境：如果没有足够的公共充电器，电动汽车就不方便，而如果电动汽车太少，安装充电器就无利可图。政府政策可能有助于打破这一循环，培养对未来电动汽车普及的乐观预期。我们对500名东京居民进行了随机对照的前后调查实验，其中只有实验组收到了有关该市零排放汽车（ZEV）销售目标和要求在新公寓大楼安装充电器的新电动汽车建筑规范的信息。结果表明，接触这些政策信息增加了参与者购买zev的意愿——即使是那些没有直接受到政策影响的参与者。中介分析表明，这种影响是由对未来采用ZEV的乐观情绪增强所驱动的。这些发现强调了消费者期望在制定电动汽车政策有效性方面的关键作用，并强调了广泛沟通政策举措以加速电动汽车普及的价值。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Transportation Research Part D-transport and Environment 工程技术-运输科技

CiteScore

14.40

自引率

9.20%

发文量

314

审稿时长

39 days

期刊介绍： Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment focuses on original research exploring the environmental impacts of transportation, policy responses to these impacts, and their implications for transportation system design, planning, and management. The journal comprehensively covers the interaction between transportation and the environment, ranging from local effects on specific geographical areas to global implications such as natural resource depletion and atmospheric pollution. We welcome research papers across all transportation modes, including maritime, air, and land transportation, assessing their environmental impacts broadly. Papers addressing both mobile aspects and transportation infrastructure are considered. The journal prioritizes empirical findings and policy responses of regulatory, planning, technical, or fiscal nature. Articles are policy-driven, accessible, and applicable to readers from diverse disciplines, emphasizing relevance and practicality. We encourage interdisciplinary submissions and welcome contributions from economically developing and advanced countries alike, reflecting our international orientation.