Spatial and temporal analysis of climatic parameters in the cold arid Trans-Himalayan region of Ladakh, India

Abstract

Climate change presents significant environmental challenges, particularly in high-altitude, cold-arid regions such as Ladakh. In this study the spatial and temporal trends of temperature and precipitation in the Trans-Himalayan region of Ladakh were analyzed over a 30-year period (1991–2020). Using data from the India Meteorological Department, the Modified Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator were applied to detect trends in climatic parameters. The results indicate no significant change in annual mean temperature; however, higher temperature was observed in February and August months. Precipitation trends reveal a significant decline of 3.68 mm in autumn precipitation from 1991 to 2020 and temperature trends reveal an 0.23 °C increase in temperature in spring season from 1991 to 2000. Overall the annual temperature and precipitation change is insignificant. Spatial analysis highlights higher temperatures and precipitation in the western part of the study area, with lower values in the east. The climatic shifts have critical implications for snow and glacier melt water in the region affecting water resources, agriculture, and local livelihoods. The findings highlight the necessity for adaptive strategies to mitigate climate impacts like water shortages and ensure environmental sustainability in this ecologically fragile Trans-Himalayan region.