Green jobs and just transition: Employment implications of Europe's Net Zero pathway

Abstract

The European Green Deal promises a “just and inclusive transition” to net-zero emissions by 2050, but employment implications remain poorly quantified. We address how Europe's net-zero transition affects energy sector employment and whether current policies ensure a just transition for affected workers. While the net-zero transition creates substantial net employment gains, we argue that significant mismatches in skills, geography, and timing require more targeted policy interventions than currently provided. Using the WITCH integrated assessment model coupled with global employment factors, we estimate changes across five job categories and eleven energy technologies for EU member states under current policies and the Net Zero emission target by 2050. Results show Europe's energy jobs increase substantially by 2050: from 1.3 million today to over 2 million under current policies and 2.5–3 million under Net Zero. Renewable energy accounts for 80 % of total energy jobs by 2050 under Net Zero, with solar PV representing three-quarters of job growth due to high labor intensity, while wind contributes 15 %. However, 300,000 jobs are lost in the coal and oil sectors under Net Zero (versus 100,000 under current policies), concentrated in Poland, Germany, and the Czech Republic. We also analyze the EU Just Transition Fund allocations to assess policy alignment and find a policy emphasis on addressing fossil fuel phase-out impacts rather than facilitating workforce transition to renewable energy. While coal-dependent countries receive substantial funding, critical gaps exist in skills development programs necessary for renewable energy expansion.