Trends in cardiovascular risk in Peru: A 10-year population-based analysis (2015–2024)

Abstract

Background

Data on national trends in cardiovascular risk in Latin America are limited. We aimed to evaluate changes in estimated 10-year cardiovascular risk in Peru between 2015 and 2024, and assess disparities by sex, age, residence, and region.

Methods

We conducted a cross-sectional analysis using nationally representative data from the Peruvian Demographic and Health Survey. Adults aged 40–74 years with complete risk factor data were included. Ten-year cardiovascular risk was estimated using the 2019 WHO non-laboratory prediction charts for Andean Latin America. Trends in mean absolute risk and the proportion of individuals at ≥high risk were assessed using joinpoint regression models, overall and by sex, age group, area of residence, and region.

Results

Among 104,617 participants, mean estimated 10-year cardiovascular risk declined from 5% in 2015 to 4.4% in 2024 (average annual percent change [AAPC] −2.3%; 95% C: −3.2 to −1.5). The prevalence of ≥high cardiovascular risk decreased from 10.3% to 8.5% (AAPC −3.2%; 95% CI −5.0 to −1.6). Risk declined significantly among women, younger adults, and both urban and rural populations, but remained unchanged in men and older adults. Regional trends were heterogeneous, with the steepest reductions observed in Amazonas, Ica, and Ayacucho.

Conclusions

Although a slight decline in estimated cardiovascular risk was observed in Peru over the past decade, the change may have limited clinical relevance. These trends emphasize the need for stronger, equity-focused efforts to reduce the burden of cardiovascular disease at the national level.