Assessing the role of material substitution in cost reduction and demand mitigation for sustainable wind energy infrastructure

Abstract

This study presents an integrated assessment of how material substitution can lower costs and reduce mineral demand in sustainable wind energy infrastructure. Using a multidimensional modeling framework, the study forecast demand for key minerals—including copper, neodymium, dysprosium, and nickel—between 2023 and 2050 under different global policy scenarios such as Stated Policies, Announced Pledges, and Net Zero targets. The methodology combines historical trend analysis, growth forecasting using nonlinear regression, and scenario-based projections to model future demand patterns. The study assesses how changes in price and availability influence mineral use through economic sensitivity modeling and elasticity analysis, identifying which materials are most responsive to market shifts. Risk and uncertainty are quantified using Monte Carlo simulations that model a wide range of future outcomes, including supply disruptions and policy volatility. Optimization modeling is employed to identify substitution pathways—such as advanced composites and engineered alternatives—that maintain turbine performance while reducing reliance on critical or high-cost materials. The results suggest that material substitution strategies can reduce total mineral demand by up to 25 % and cut production costs by 10–30 %, particularly in rare-earth-intensive components. These findings offer valuable insights for policymakers, manufacturers, and investors seeking to align energy infrastructure development with environmental and economic sustainability. While comprehensive, the analysis acknowledges certain limitations. The projections are scenario-based and depend on assumptions about technological innovation, market dynamics, and policy execution. Additionally, uncertainties in global mineral reserve data and supply chain transparency may influence the accuracy of demand forecasts. Overall, this research provides a data-driven, novel roadmap for building more resilient, cost-efficient, and environmentally responsible wind energy systems by integrating substitution technologies and sustainable material strategies.