Navigating the methanol industry paradox: Environmental gains versus economic realities in green methanol adoption

Abstract

The global urgency to decarbonize chemical and transportation sectors has positioned green methanol as a promising alternative to conventional fossil-based production. However, the complex interplay between environmental benefits and economic viability remains poorly understood. Here, this study developed an integrated Life Cycle Assessment-System Dynamics framework to evaluate the transition pathways of the methanol industry. Our analysis reveals a striking paradox: while green methanol reduces carbon emissions by 80 % in formaldehyde, production costs remain 46 % higher, which creates significant market resistance. This economic barrier leads to divergent adoption patterns, with transportation applications showing accelerated uptake while chemical production maintains traditional pathways. The model predicts that this bifurcated transition could accelerate industry decarbonization by allowing targeted investment. These findings provide insights for policymakers and industry stakeholders, suggesting that a segmented rather than uniform approach to green methanol adoption might be effective for achieving climate goals.