A spatially dynamic agent-based model for assessing the effect of gentrification-induced migration and HIV transmission among heterosexual African American/Black women

IF 3.6 3区医学 Q1 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH

Annals of Epidemiology Pub Date : 2025-10-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-19 DOI:10.1016/j.annepidem.2025.08.007

Shayla Nolen , Sam E. Bessey , Chanelle J. Howe , Bridgette M. Rice , Katie B. Biello , Brandon D.L. Marshall

{"title":"A spatially dynamic agent-based model for assessing the effect of gentrification-induced migration and HIV transmission among heterosexual African American/Black women","authors":"Shayla Nolen , Sam E. Bessey , Chanelle J. Howe , Bridgette M. Rice , Katie B. Biello , Brandon D.L. Marshall","doi":"10.1016/j.annepidem.2025.08.007","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Purpose</h3><div>Develop a spatially dynamic agent-based model to assess the impact of gentrification-induced migration on HIV transmission among heterosexual African American/Black women.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>We simulated a population of heterosexual African American/Black adults diagnosed with or at risk for HIV in a spatially dynamic agent-based model. We included behavioral and HIV-related probabilities based on neighborhood of residence, distance to healthcare facilities from their neighborhood, and neighborhood disadvantage status. To assess the impact of gentrification, migration was implemented in the model using probabilities that varied based on the gentrification status of their neighborhood. We then compared this scenario to a scenario where gentrification does not impact migration.</div></div><div><h3>Results</h3><div>Among African American/Black women, we estimated their mean incidence rates for the scenarios with and without gentrification impacting out-migration to be 57.2 and 57.4 per 100,000, respectively.</div></div><div><h3>Conclusions</h3><div>Gentrification appears to have minimal impact on HIV transmission based on some metrics, possibly because of the displacement of people most affected by HIV.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50767,"journal":{"name":"Annals of Epidemiology","volume":"110 ","pages":"Pages 122-129"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6000,"publicationDate":"2025-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Annals of Epidemiology","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1047279725002212","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2025/8/19 0:00:00","PubModel":"Epub","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Abstract

Purpose

Develop a spatially dynamic agent-based model to assess the impact of gentrification-induced migration on HIV transmission among heterosexual African American/Black women.

Methods

We simulated a population of heterosexual African American/Black adults diagnosed with or at risk for HIV in a spatially dynamic agent-based model. We included behavioral and HIV-related probabilities based on neighborhood of residence, distance to healthcare facilities from their neighborhood, and neighborhood disadvantage status. To assess the impact of gentrification, migration was implemented in the model using probabilities that varied based on the gentrification status of their neighborhood. We then compared this scenario to a scenario where gentrification does not impact migration.

Results

Among African American/Black women, we estimated their mean incidence rates for the scenarios with and without gentrification impacting out-migration to be 57.2 and 57.4 per 100,000, respectively.

Conclusions

Gentrification appears to have minimal impact on HIV transmission based on some metrics, possibly because of the displacement of people most affected by HIV.

查看原文本刊更多论文

基于空间动态主体的非裔美国/黑人异性恋女性移民与艾滋病传播影响评估模型

目的建立一个基于空间动态主体的模型，评估高档化导致的移民对异性恋非洲裔美国人/黑人妇女中艾滋病毒传播的影响。方法：我们在一个基于空间动态主体的模型中模拟了被诊断患有或有感染艾滋病毒风险的异性恋非洲裔美国人/黑人成年人。我们纳入了基于居住社区、社区到医疗机构的距离以及社区弱势地位的行为和艾滋病毒相关概率。为了评估中产阶级化的影响，在模型中使用基于其社区中产阶级化状态的概率来实现迁移。然后，我们将这种情况与中产阶级化不影响移民的情况进行了比较。结果在非裔美国人/黑人妇女中，我们估计在有或没有中产阶级化影响的情况下，她们的平均发病率分别为57.2 / 100,000和57.4 / 100,000。根据某些指标，高档化似乎对艾滋病毒传播的影响最小，可能是因为受艾滋病毒影响最严重的人流离失所。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

求助全文

约1分钟内获得全文求助全文

来源期刊

Annals of Epidemiology 医学-公共卫生、环境卫生与职业卫生

CiteScore

7.40

自引率

1.80%

发文量

207

审稿时长

59 days

期刊介绍： The journal emphasizes the application of epidemiologic methods to issues that affect the distribution and determinants of human illness in diverse contexts. Its primary focus is on chronic and acute conditions of diverse etiologies and of major importance to clinical medicine, public health, and health care delivery.