It's time to consider global catastrophic food failures

Abstract

Food systems today face interconnected, systemic risks that could culminate in widespread disruptions triggering extreme global famine, in addition to neglected extreme risks. This paper introduces the concept of Global Catastrophic Food Failure (GCFF) to describe such scenarios; where food shortages overwhelm response capacities of governments and private sectors, necessitating extraordinary interventions. A GCFF could be triggered by various mechanisms including: abrupt sunlight reduction scenarios from a volcanic winter (like a Tambora-scale eruption), nuclear winter, or asteroid impact that could cause near-total agricultural collapse; multiple breadbasket failures from synchronous extreme weather events causing >10 % yield losses; collapse of critical climate systems like the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) that could eliminate half of wheat and maize cultivation zones; or cascading disruptions to global trade and agricultural inputs (fertilizers, fuel, machinery) that could reduce crop production by up to 40 % across staples. These events would be characterized by rapid onset, extended duration over multiple years, extreme magnitude affecting global food supply by 5–10 % or more, and limited resilience exceeding normal coping mechanisms. While the exact likelihood of certain GCFF scenarios is uncertain, forecasts over the century indicate a probability of over 10 % for each of: a large climate-changing eruption, a nuclear war, and an AMOC collapse. Currently, GCFF is a blind spot requiring research and policy efforts to strengthen food systems' resilience and capacity to sustain humanity.