B H Du, X X Zhang, D X Feng, W H Wang, M Y Zhang, Z P Xiao, Y Y Zhang
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引用次数: 0
Abstract
Objective: To construct a risk assessment system for measles transmission in Henan Province and scientifically evaluate the risk levels of measles transmission in each city in Henan Province. Methods: The modified Delphi method was used to conduct two rounds of expert consultations to construct a risk assessment system for measles transmission. Data from all 191 cities, counties and districts in Henan Province were collected. The internal consistency (Cronbach's α), content validity (content validity index, CVI) and structural validity (factor analysis) of the indicator system were evaluated to optimize the assessment framework. The indicator assignment method was adopted, and the comprehensive risk scores were obtained by adding the scores according to different weights. Results: Both rounds of consultation witnessed a 100% participation rate among all experts. The authority coefficients of experts in the two rounds were 0.920 and 0.925, and concordance coefficients were 0.201 (χ2=161.11, P<0.001) and 0.210 (χ2=163.80, P<0.001). The constructed assessment system comprised four dimensions-population immunity levels, surveillance quality, importation risk, and technical reserve of emergency response capacities-with a total of 30 indicators. Reliability analysis of the assessment system showed an overall Cronbach's α of 0.741. Validity analysis revealed that all content validity indices reached 1.000, with principal factors cumulatively accounting for 67.625% of the variance, and all factor loadings exceeded 0.400. The measles transmission risk assessment in Henan Province using this assessment system identified Zhengzhou (92), Xinxiang (91), Xinyang (89), and Pingdingshan (73) as high-risk regions. Conclusion: The risk assessment system developed in this study demonstrates good reliability and validity, effectively reflecting measles transmission risks across Henan Province. The findings highlight the need to strengthen surveillance and control measures in high-risk areas, particularly in Zhengzhou.
期刊介绍：
Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine (CJPM), the successor to Chinese Health Journal , was initiated on October 1, 1953. In 1960, it was amalgamated with the Chinese Medical Journal and the Journal of Medical History and Health Care , and thereafter, was renamed as People’s Care . On November 25, 1978, the publication was denominated as Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine . The contents of CJPM deal with a wide range of disciplines and technologies including epidemiology, environmental health, nutrition and food hygiene, occupational health, hygiene for children and adolescents, radiological health, toxicology, biostatistics, social medicine, pathogenic and epidemiological research in malignant tumor, surveillance and immunization.
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