The climatic patterns that control regional fire activity in the Brazilian savanna

IF 5.7 1区农林科学 Q1 AGRONOMY

Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Pub Date : 2025-08-21 DOI:10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110792

Patrícia S. Silva , Renata Libonati , Luiz G. Gonçalves , Carlos C. DaCamara

{"title":"The climatic patterns that control regional fire activity in the Brazilian savanna","authors":"Patrícia S. Silva , Renata Libonati , Luiz G. Gonçalves , Carlos C. DaCamara","doi":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110792","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Fire activity in the Brazilian savanna (Cerrado) is heavily constrained by climate, however the climate patterns that lead to extreme fire seasons are not yet well understood. Climate conditions during the fire season determine fire weather, but climate patterns prior to the fire season months may also modulate fuel availability and condition. In the context of a changing climate, understanding the climatic patterns that lead to extreme fire events, and their mediating factors, is crucial to build resilient landscapes and inform decision-making. In this study, we propose to uncover the nature of these relationships for Cerrado. We evaluate the regional temperature and precipitation patterns that lead to severe and mild fire seasons for each of the 19 ecoregions of Cerrado. We identify two periods that show contrasting behaviours in both extremes: the concurrent climate conditions during the fire season months (August to October) and pre-conditions during the austral autumn (March to May). Despite noteworthy regional discrepancies, in general we find that severe fire seasons are preceded by hot and dry conditions during autumn and associated with hot and dry conditions during the fire season months. Mild fire seasons see the opposite pattern, with colder and wetter conditions both during and prior to the fire season. We further investigate the influence of these climatic patterns in extreme fire activity for each month of the fire season and find that, over most ecoregions, early fire season burned areas are influenced by pre-conditions during autumn, whereas late fire season burned areas rely on concurrent favourable meteorological conditions. These results contribute to the understanding of the regional fire-climate dynamics of the second largest biome in South America and provide a starting point for regional fire outlooks. We further provide regionally tailored information that, considering recent Brazilian policies, may prove useful for fire management.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50839,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural and Forest Meteorology","volume":"374 ","pages":"Article 110792"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7000,"publicationDate":"2025-08-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Agricultural and Forest Meteorology","FirstCategoryId":"97","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0168192325004113","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"AGRONOMY","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Abstract

Fire activity in the Brazilian savanna (Cerrado) is heavily constrained by climate, however the climate patterns that lead to extreme fire seasons are not yet well understood. Climate conditions during the fire season determine fire weather, but climate patterns prior to the fire season months may also modulate fuel availability and condition. In the context of a changing climate, understanding the climatic patterns that lead to extreme fire events, and their mediating factors, is crucial to build resilient landscapes and inform decision-making. In this study, we propose to uncover the nature of these relationships for Cerrado. We evaluate the regional temperature and precipitation patterns that lead to severe and mild fire seasons for each of the 19 ecoregions of Cerrado. We identify two periods that show contrasting behaviours in both extremes: the concurrent climate conditions during the fire season months (August to October) and pre-conditions during the austral autumn (March to May). Despite noteworthy regional discrepancies, in general we find that severe fire seasons are preceded by hot and dry conditions during autumn and associated with hot and dry conditions during the fire season months. Mild fire seasons see the opposite pattern, with colder and wetter conditions both during and prior to the fire season. We further investigate the influence of these climatic patterns in extreme fire activity for each month of the fire season and find that, over most ecoregions, early fire season burned areas are influenced by pre-conditions during autumn, whereas late fire season burned areas rely on concurrent favourable meteorological conditions. These results contribute to the understanding of the regional fire-climate dynamics of the second largest biome in South America and provide a starting point for regional fire outlooks. We further provide regionally tailored information that, considering recent Brazilian policies, may prove useful for fire management.

查看原文本刊更多论文

控制巴西热带草原区域火灾活动的气候模式

巴西热带稀树草原（塞拉多）的火灾活动受到气候的严重制约，然而，导致极端火灾季节的气候模式尚未得到很好的理解。火灾季节期间的气候条件决定了火灾天气，但火灾季节之前的气候模式也可能调节燃料的可用性和条件。在气候变化的背景下，了解导致极端火灾事件的气候模式及其中介因素，对于建立有弹性的景观和为决策提供信息至关重要。在这项研究中，我们建议为塞拉多揭示这些关系的本质。我们评估了塞拉多19个生态区导致严重和轻度火季的区域温度和降水模式。我们确定了在两个极端中表现出对比行为的两个时期：火灾季节（8月至10月）的同期气候条件和南方秋季（3月至5月）的先决条件。尽管存在显著的区域差异，但总的来说，我们发现严重的火灾季节之前是秋季的炎热和干燥条件，并且与火灾季节月份的炎热和干燥条件有关。温和的火灾季节则相反，在火灾季节期间和之前，天气都更冷、更潮湿。我们进一步研究了这些气候模式对火灾季节每个月极端火灾活动的影响，发现在大多数生态区，火灾季节早期的燃烧区域受到秋季先决条件的影响，而火灾季节后期的燃烧区域则依赖于同时有利的气象条件。这些结果有助于了解南美洲第二大生物群系的区域火灾-气候动态，并为区域火灾前景提供了一个起点。我们进一步提供适合区域的信息，考虑到巴西最近的政策，这些信息可能对火灾管理有用。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

求助全文

约1分钟内获得全文求助全文

来源期刊

Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 农林科学-林学

CiteScore

10.30

自引率

9.70%

发文量

415

审稿时长

69 days

期刊介绍： Agricultural and Forest Meteorology is an international journal for the publication of original articles and reviews on the inter-relationship between meteorology, agriculture, forestry, and natural ecosystems. Emphasis is on basic and applied scientific research relevant to practical problems in the field of plant and soil sciences, ecology and biogeochemistry as affected by weather as well as climate variability and change. Theoretical models should be tested against experimental data. Articles must appeal to an international audience. Special issues devoted to single topics are also published. Typical topics include canopy micrometeorology (e.g. canopy radiation transfer, turbulence near the ground, evapotranspiration, energy balance, fluxes of trace gases), micrometeorological instrumentation (e.g., sensors for trace gases, flux measurement instruments, radiation measurement techniques), aerobiology (e.g. the dispersion of pollen, spores, insects and pesticides), biometeorology (e.g. the effect of weather and climate on plant distribution, crop yield, water-use efficiency, and plant phenology), forest-fire/weather interactions, and feedbacks from vegetation to weather and the climate system.