Does what happens on-chain stays on-chain? The dynamics of blockchain token transactions and prices

IF 3.3 2区经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2025-08-14 DOI:10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103408

Hugo Benedetti , Gabriel Rodríguez-Garnica

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Cryptoassets, particularly tokens, have garnered investor interest due to high returns, yet comprehensive studies examining on-chain transaction data to assess their intrinsic value remain limited. This study addresses this gap by introducing new on-chain transaction-based measures of token usage, crypto-exchange supply pressures, and aggregate transaction intention (trading versus usage/holding). Using over 180 million records of Ethereum-based-tokens’ transaction data, we categorize on-chain transactions as peer-to-peer usage or crypto-exchange-related. Our findings show that while increased token usage intensity, whether through peer-to-peer or exchange transactions, positively correlates with higher token returns, imbalances in exchange flows have the opposite effect. Specifically, increased token inflows to exchanges signal potential supply pressure and increased token deposits signal aggregate intention to trade, both contributing to price declines. This research underscores on-chain data as a reliable economic signal and its impact on token valuations.

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链上发生的事情会保持在链上吗？区块链代币交易和价格的动态

加密资产，特别是代币，由于其高回报而引起了投资者的兴趣，但检查链上交易数据以评估其内在价值的综合研究仍然有限。本研究通过引入新的基于链上交易的令牌使用、加密货币交易所供应压力和总交易意图（交易与使用/持有）的衡量标准来解决这一差距。使用超过1.8亿条基于以太坊的代币交易数据记录，我们将链上交易分类为点对点使用或与加密交换相关的交易。我们的研究结果表明，虽然增加代币使用强度，无论是通过点对点交易还是交换交易，都与更高的代币回报呈正相关，但交换流量的不平衡具有相反的效果。具体而言，流入交易所的代币增加表明潜在的供应压力，而增加的代币存款表明总体交易意愿，两者都导致价格下跌。这项研究强调了链上数据作为可靠的经济信号及其对代币估值的影响。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of International Money and Finance BUSINESS, FINANCE-

CiteScore

4.20

自引率

4.00%

发文量

141

期刊介绍： Since its launch in 1982, Journal of International Money and Finance has built up a solid reputation as a high quality scholarly journal devoted to theoretical and empirical research in the fields of international monetary economics, international finance, and the rapidly developing overlap area between the two. Researchers in these areas, and financial market professionals too, pay attention to the articles that the journal publishes. Authors published in the journal are in the forefront of scholarly research on exchange rate behaviour, foreign exchange options, international capital markets, international monetary and fiscal policy, international transmission and related questions.