Aligned interpretations? Comparing energy modeller and policymaker perspectives on model development and use

Abstract

Models are not neutral. Yet, there has been insufficient attention given to the possible divergence in interpretations between those producing energy models and those using the related modelling evidence. This paper investigates how various actors involved in an energy policymaking-modelling system imagine key components of model design and development. We focus on four model components that energy-economic modellers have identified as essential for advancing the relevance and value of energy-economic models in the context of net-zero transitions: (1) uncertainties; (2) technological innovation and radical transformation; (3) diversity of actor responses; and (4) long-time horizons. We adopted a case study approach that focused on the EU energy policymaking-modelling system. We conducted 16 interviews; 6 with European Commission policy officers, and 10 with those developing Commission-funded energy-economic models. We found that the four model components exhibited little Interpretative Flexibility; specifically, only one component (long-time horizons) was interpreted differently between EU policymakers and energy-economic modellers. Indeed, the policymakers’ understanding of model development meant that they did little interpretative work on energy models altogether. We call for modeller-policymaker dialogue to prioritise what sits behind interpretations (e.g. theories, ideologies) and to more constructively discuss model boundaries and scope (e.g. via systems thinking, use of intermediaries).