System dynamics based qualitative framework for solar PV recycling

Abstract

With the increasing demand for energy, solar PV continues to grow steadily. A massive volume of solar PV waste is expected in the coming decades, but the economic viability of the current recycling methods is questionable. While techno-economic assessments of recycling methods have been conducted, they rely on linear recycling models with an event-oriented perspective. Given the growing emphasis on clean, sustainable energy and the circular economy, a comprehensive analysis of the dynamics and cause-effect relationships shaping solar PV recycling is essential. This study presents a qualitative framework, incorporating critical feedback loops, to better understand these dynamics. The causal loop diagram includes four key domains: energy demand, solar PV growth, landfill disposal and recycling. The developed model identifies key leverage and intervention points. Additionally, by analysing the evolving interactions of various reinforcing and balancing loops, this study categorizes the evolution of solar PV recycling in India into three distinct phases: Development Phase (2025–2035), Growth and Optimization Phase (2035–2050), and Saturation Phase (2050–2075). The defining characteristics of each phase are explored in detail.