Temporal Trends of Dengue in India (1990-2021): A Joinpoint and Age-Period-Cohort Analysis.

IF 2.2 3区环境科学与生态学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Ecohealth Pub Date : 2025-08-19 DOI:10.1007/s10393-025-01745-7

Meenu Mariya James, Bhabani Shankar Mohanty, Naveen Kumar Kodali, Praveen Balabaskaran Nina, Natarajan Gopalan, Sujit Kumar Behera

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Abstract

Dengue is a neglected tropical disease with a huge disease burden globally. Even though previous studies have focused on socio-demographic and climatic predictors of dengue, the independent effects of age, period, and birth cohort have not been studied. Here, using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, a joinpoint regression analysis and an age-period-cohort model were applied to identify temporal trends in age-standardized incidence and mortality rates and to estimate the longitudinal age curves, the rate ratios of period and cohort effects, the net drift, and the local drift values of dengue incidence and mortality in India, respectively. Dengue incidence and mortality trends in India showed a significant increase from 1990 to 2021. The average annual percent change (AAPC) of age-standardized incidence (AAPC: 1.39; 95% CI: 1.34, 1.44) and mortality (AAPC: 1.65; 95% CI: 1.23, 2.08) increased significantly over the study period. The Error, Trend, and Seasonality model forecasts a rise in cases from 28.86 million in 2020 to 32.06 million, while the ARIMA model projects an increase from 28.95 million to 33.43 million by 2031. The age-standardized rates of incidence, mortality, age, period, and cohort effects of dengue incidence and mortality in India show an increasing trend in all age groups from 1990 to 2021 in both sexes. The findings underscore the need for enhanced dengue prevention and control strategies in India.

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印度登革热的时间趋势（1990-2021）：一个结合点和年龄时期队列分析。

登革热是一种被忽视的热带病，在全球造成巨大的疾病负担。尽管先前的研究侧重于登革热的社会人口和气候预测因素，但尚未研究年龄、时期和出生队列的独立影响。在这里，使用来自2021年全球疾病负担研究的数据，采用联结点回归分析和年龄-时期-队列模型来确定年龄标准化发病率和死亡率的时间趋势，并分别估计印度登革热发病率和死亡率的纵向年龄曲线、时期和队列效应的比率、净漂移值和当地漂移值。从1990年到2021年，印度的登革热发病率和死亡率趋势显著上升。在研究期间，年龄标准化发病率（AAPC: 1.39, 95% CI: 1.34, 1.44）和死亡率（AAPC: 1.65, 95% CI: 1.23, 2.08）的年均变化率（AAPC: 1.39, 95% CI: 1.34, 1.44）显著增加。误差、趋势和季节性模型预测，到2020年，病例将从2886万例增加到3206万例，而ARIMA模型预测，到2031年，病例将从2895万例增加到3343万例。印度登革热发病率和死亡率的年龄标准化率、死亡率、年龄、时期和队列效应显示，从1990年至2021年，所有年龄组的男女发病率和死亡率都呈上升趋势。这些发现强调了印度加强登革热预防和控制战略的必要性。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Ecohealth 环境科学-环境科学

CiteScore

4.50

自引率

4.00%

发文量

审稿时长

>24 weeks

期刊介绍： EcoHealth aims to advance research, practice, and knowledge integration at the interface of ecology and health by publishing high quality research and review articles that address and profile new ideas, developments, and programs. The journal’s scope encompasses research that integrates concepts and theory from many fields of scholarship (including ecological, social and health sciences, and the humanities) and draws upon multiple types of knowledge, including those of relevance to practice and policy. Papers address integrated ecology and health challenges arising in public health, human and veterinary medicine, conservation and ecosystem management, rural and urban development and planning, and other fields that address the social-ecological context of health. The journal is a central platform for fulfilling the mission of the EcoHealth Alliance to strive for sustainable health of people, domestic animals, wildlife, and ecosystems by promoting discovery, understanding, and transdisciplinarity. The journal invites substantial contributions in the following areas: One Health and Conservation Medicine o Integrated research on health of humans, wildlife, livestock and ecosystems o Research and policy in ecology, public health, and agricultural sustainability o Emerging infectious diseases affecting people, wildlife, domestic animals, and plants o Research and practice linking human and animal health and/or social-ecological systems o Anthropogenic environmental change and drivers of disease emergence in humans, wildlife, livestock and ecosystems o Health of humans and animals in relation to terrestrial, freshwater, and marine ecosystems Ecosystem Approaches to Health o Systems thinking and social-ecological systems in relation to health o Transdiiplinary approaches to health, ecosystems and society.