The dynamics of common respiratory pathogens in southern china under the context of COVID-19 pandemic and prediction of mycoplasma pneumonia (2018–2023)

Abstract

This study investigates the epidemiological characteristics of common respiratory pathogens across three distinct periods: before, during and after the COVID-19 pandemic, We aimed to determine whether new trends in the transmission of respiratory pathogens would emerge as non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPIs) were gradually lifted. We analyzed the differences observed between the pre-epidemic, epidemic and post-epidemic periods. An autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) time series model was employed to predict future trends of Mycoplasma pneumoniae (MP) infections. MP infections were most prevalent among adolescents, exhibiting a positive rate of 46.73 %, whereas RSV infections were observed primarily in neonates with a rate of 24.30 %, followed by infants at 14.74 %. Before the COVID-19 pandemic, MP was identified as the predominant pathogen. However, during the pandemic, there was a marked decline in the positive detection rates of both MP and Influenza A( IAV), while the positive rate of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV)significantly increased. In period three, the trend of RSV remained relatively stable, and the levels of IAVwere consistent with those observed prior to the period one. Conversely, the proportion of MP rose substantially, with its detection rate rebounding to 29.00 %. The positive detection rates for Influenza B (IBV) and adenovirus (ADV) remained largely stable throughout the three periods. During the three periods, a shift in the age distribution of MP infections was noted, with the majority of cases occurring in the 3–17 year age group following the epidemic. Furthermore, according to the predictions of the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model, a decline in the trend of MP epidemic is anticipated in the forthcoming few months.