Analysis of Risk Factors and Model Construction for Recurrence Following Surgery for Primary Retinal Detachment.

Abstract

Aim: To investigate the risk factors for recurrent retinal detachment (re-RD) and to develop a predictive model to provide a basis for clinical evaluation.

Methods: A retrospective analysis was conducted on clinical data from 432 patients who underwent primary retinal detachment (RD) surgery at our institution between January 2021 and December 2023. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to identify independent risk factors for re-RD. A predictive model was constructed based on significant variables, and its performance was evaluated.

Results: Independent risk factors for re-RD included previous ocular surgery, increased axial length, larger retinal tear diameter, and surgical methods (p < 0.05). Younger age was associated with a higher incidence of re-RD, while moderate preoperative best-corrected visual acuity (BCVA, 0.1 ≤ BCVA < 0.5) was associated with a reduced incidence. The predictive model demonstrated satisfactory performance, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of 0.789. The calibration curve indicated good agreement between predicted probabilities and observed outcomes.

Conclusions: This study identified significant risk factors for re-RD and developed a predictive model with robust clinical relevance. These findings contribute to individualized risk assessment and optimized surgical decision-making in patients undergoing primary RD surgery.