Modeling the Impact of Mining Activities on the Dynamics and Evolution of a Kyrgyz Glacier

Abstract

Glaciers worldwide are retreating because of climate change. However, local human activities also influence their dynamics. Here, we model the impact of gold mining operations on Davydov Glacier in the Inner Tien Shan, Kyrgyzstan, from the Little Ice Age through 2100 under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathway climate scenarios using a 3D thermomechanical ice flow model. Satellite observations and model simulations reveal that mining activities over the past two decades shortened the Davydov Glacier by ∼2 km in the central section and reduced its volume by 160 million m³, compared to a scenario where the glacier would have solely evolved due to climate forcing. If mining ceases, the glacier could temporarily advance by up to 100 m. However, by 2060, the glacier will retreat beyond the mining site, with no differences between mining and no-mining scenarios. By 2100, volume losses range from 40% to 99%, depending on the climate scenario. A return to the Little Ice Age (LIA) climate could allow full recovery within 500 years. However, mining-induced landscape changes would cause the glacier to regrow under LIA conditions to more than twice its original extent, reaching up to 2.5 times its original volume and a thickness of up to 600 m. This study highlights how human activities near glaciers can significantly impact their geometry, stability, and long-term evolution, emphasizing the lasting consequences of landscape modifications on glacier response.