Víctor Allendes , Juan Antonio Carrasco , Eric J. Miller , James Vaughan
{"title":"Temporal transferability of a microsimulation activity-based model: An application in Chile","authors":"Víctor Allendes , Juan Antonio Carrasco , Eric J. Miller , James Vaughan","doi":"10.1016/j.latran.2025.100043","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Urban transport policies in the Global South mostly use traditional trip-based models to replicate and predict individuals' travel in different urban contexts. Given their aggregate nature, they are limited when applied at a more disaggregated scale, contrasting with activity-based models, especially microsimulation-based models, which have been used mainly in the Global North, with few applications in Latin America. In addition, there is a critical need to add empirical evidence to understand the models' temporal transferability, which involves their capability to predict future travel behavior based on estimations with data collected in the present. This paper reports on the replicability and temporal transferability of an activity-based model in Chile. The objective is to understand the challenges of applying these models in these contexts for policy usefulness. The applicability of the model TASHA (Travel Activity Scheduler Household Agent) is studied in two stages: replication and prediction of activities and trips for a base year and temporal transferability of previously estimated parameters to a future year. The model uses trip-based information from conventional travel surveys in a mid-size Chilean city. The exercise provides valuable proof of the principle of several arguments about the advantages of activity-based models such as TASHA. First, the study shows the model's ability to capture current and future behaviour despite data and context limitations. Second, the model supports the analysis of activities in addition to trips, providing a more in-depth assessment of travel behaviour. Finally, and more importantly, the focus on activities, such as end times, brings the opportunity to incorporate a broader range of policies than those traditionally studied in transport.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100868,"journal":{"name":"Latin American Transport Studies","volume":"3 ","pages":"Article 100043"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2025-08-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Latin American Transport Studies","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2950024925000204","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Urban transport policies in the Global South mostly use traditional trip-based models to replicate and predict individuals' travel in different urban contexts. Given their aggregate nature, they are limited when applied at a more disaggregated scale, contrasting with activity-based models, especially microsimulation-based models, which have been used mainly in the Global North, with few applications in Latin America. In addition, there is a critical need to add empirical evidence to understand the models' temporal transferability, which involves their capability to predict future travel behavior based on estimations with data collected in the present. This paper reports on the replicability and temporal transferability of an activity-based model in Chile. The objective is to understand the challenges of applying these models in these contexts for policy usefulness. The applicability of the model TASHA (Travel Activity Scheduler Household Agent) is studied in two stages: replication and prediction of activities and trips for a base year and temporal transferability of previously estimated parameters to a future year. The model uses trip-based information from conventional travel surveys in a mid-size Chilean city. The exercise provides valuable proof of the principle of several arguments about the advantages of activity-based models such as TASHA. First, the study shows the model's ability to capture current and future behaviour despite data and context limitations. Second, the model supports the analysis of activities in addition to trips, providing a more in-depth assessment of travel behaviour. Finally, and more importantly, the focus on activities, such as end times, brings the opportunity to incorporate a broader range of policies than those traditionally studied in transport.