Multi-scenario impacts on ecosystem services and relationships in alpine ecosystems: A case study of the Daxing’anling forest area, Inner Mongolia

Abstract

Understanding future ecosystem service (ES) dynamics and relationships is crucial for sustainable management, particularly in degraded alpine ecosystems. Research gaps exist in integrating future land use with SSP-RCP climate scenarios to systematically examine ESs and their multidimensional relationships. Focusing on the Daxing’anling forest area, Inner Mongolia, we developed a comprehensive framework integrating PLUS and InVEST models with SSP-RCP scenarios to simulate spatiotemporal dynamics of four ESs and their multi-perspective relationships under nine climate and land-use scenarios from 2018 to 2053. Main findings: (1) Climate was characterized by warming and drying, with forests remaining dominant (>93 %). Ecological protection (EP) scenarios promoted forest expansion, whereas conventional development (CD) and ecological-economic development (EED) scenarios expanded cropland. (2) By 2053, water yield (WY) decreased significantly (3.45–10.52 %), while carbon storage (CS), soil conservation, and habitat quality (HQ) experienced minor fluctuations. ES supply capacity was highest under EP scenarios and lowest under CD scenarios. (3) All ES pairs exhibited predominantly synergistic relationships, with strongest synergy in CS-HQ and weakest in WY-CS. SSP126 most favorably influenced ES pair relationships. (4) Overall relationships among multiple ESs were dominated by trade-offs (81.44–82.17 %). EP scenarios enhanced trade-offs while suppressing synergies, whereas CD and EED scenarios produced opposite effects. Overall, climate and land-use changes impact ESs and their relationships scenario-dependently and spatially heterogeneously, with SSP126-EP being optimal. Under most scenarios, ES supply capacity weakened, ES pairs remained synergistic, and overall ES relationships were dominated by strengthened trade-offs. We recommend adaptive climate management, land-use optimization, and differentiated strategies for alpine ecosystem sustainability.