Habitat suitability and distribution dynamics of Rhipicephalus microplus under climate change in Yunnan Province, China

Abstract

Rhipicephalus microplus is a significant vector of tick-borne diseases and poses serious threats to livestock health and agricultural productivity. In recent years, climate change and intensified human activities have significantly increased the risk of disease transmission. This study used the MaxEnt model and ArcGIS software to evaluate the impact of climate change on the habitat suitability of R. microplus in Yunnan Province, China. Occurrence records of the tick species and key environmental variables (such as climate factors, topography, and livestock density) were integrated to model its potential distribution under current and future climate scenarios. The results indicate that the primary environmental variables influencing the distribution of R. microplus are mean diurnal temperature range, slope, annual temperature range, annual precipitation, precipitation of the driest quarter, and cattle density. Under current climatic conditions, suitable habitats account for 80.33% of the total area of Yunnan Province. Under future climate scenarios, the overall extent of suitable habitats is projected to expand, although regional variations may occur across different periods. The distribution centroid is expected to shift southeastward, highlighting the need for enhanced tick surveillance and control in high-suitability areas in western Yunnan and newly suitable regions such as Honghe, Wenshan, and Chuxiong. These findings provide a scientific basis for developing spatially targeted strategies for preventing and controlling tick-borne diseases in Yunnan Province.