[Synergistic Effect of Agricultural Pollution and Carbon Reduction and Their Driving Factors in Henan Province].

Abstract

In the context of the "dual-carbon" goal and shaping of new advantages in green agricultural development, empirical references and policy recommendations are provided for agricultural agglomeration regions, mainly in grain-producing areas such as Henan Province, to explore the green, low-carbon transformation and high-quality sustainable development of agriculture. Based on the coupled coordination model, the GTWR model was used to explore the influence mechanism and spatiotemporal heterogeneity of the two synergies and their drivers, with a view to promoting the green, low-carbon and sustainable development of agriculture in Henan Province by taking pollution reduction and carbon reduction as a common goal. The results showed that： Between 2010 and 2022, agricultural carbon emissions and agricultural surface pollution emissions in Henan Province showed a slow increase, followed by a slow decline and a gradual stabilization trend, with obvious spatial and temporal heterogeneity. Between 2010 and 2022, the synergistic degree of agricultural carbon emissions and agricultural surface pollution in Henan Province had a trend of slow decrease and weakening of the polarization phenomenon, and the synergistic degree of differentiation in various regions decreased. The level of agricultural concentration and the degree of scale of cultivated land showed a negative regulatory effect, the urbanization rate showed a positive regulatory effect, and the positive and negative effects were distributed. The level of agricultural agglomeration and the degree of scale of arable land showed a negative regulatory effect； the urbanization rate showed a positive regulatory effect； the agricultural industry structure, crop planting structure, and effective irrigation rate of the regulatory effect of the spatial difference was obvious； and the positive and negative impacts were distributed. For the grain growing regions in Henan Province, a more positive driving effect was observed. In addition, the negative value of the regression coefficient of financial support for agriculture was concentrated in the central part of Henan Province, which had a significant negative driving effect on agricultural pollution reduction and carbon reduction in the central part of Henan Province. Agricultural carbon emissions and agricultural surface pollution in Henan Province had a high degree of synergy and strong spatial heterogeneity, and the regional differences in the impact of the driving factors on the synergistic effect were obvious. Thus, we should carry out the reuse of waste resources, strengthen agricultural technological innovation, and formulate differentiated pollution reduction and carbon reduction policies according to the local conditions, so as to promote the green and high-quality development of agriculture and to help achieve the "dual-carbon" goal.