[Land Use Scenario Simulation and Habitat Quality Change in Pinglu River Economic Belt Based on PLUS-InVEST Model].

Abstract

Exploring the spatiotemporal characteristics of habitat quality and its influencing factors in the Pinglu Canal Economic Belt is crucial for promoting the high-quality and sustainable development of this region. Based on five periods of land use data from 2000 to 2020, the PLUS model was used to predict the land use change pattern of the Pinglu Canal Economic Zone for 2030 under three scenarios： natural development （NDS）, ecological protection （EPS）, and planning for the Pinglu Canal （PS）. The InVEST model and geodetector were then coupled to explore the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors of habitat quality from 2000 to 2030. The results showed that： ① The predominant land use types in the Pinglu Canal Economic Belt were forest land and arable land. Between the years 2000 and 2020, a discernible trend of continuous expansion in the area of construction land and a corresponding decline in the area of other land uses was observed. Projections for different scenarios in 2030 indicated that the land changes in the NDS scenario aligned with the historical development pattern. In contrast, the EPS scenario significantly constrained the expansion of construction land, while the PS scenario exhibited varying degrees of growth in construction land, water, and forest land. In the PS scenario, a notable increase was observed in the area of construction land, water, and forest land. In the PS scenario, the area of built-up land, water, and forest land all demonstrated varying degrees of increase. ② From 2000 to 2020, the area of high and high-grade habitat quality accounted for 57% of the total area. The area of serious and slight decrease in habitat quality was concentrated in the urban area and showed a trend of the degradation of habitat quality that was predicted to continue year on year in the NDS scenario because of the expansion of built-up land. In contrast, the EPS scenario was expected to result in a significant improvement in habitat quality, as a consequence of the protection of ecological land. By 2030, the NDS scenario will continue to degrade habitat quality due to the continuous increase of construction land, whereas the EPS scenario will greatly improve habitat quality because of the effective protection of ecological land, resulting in a positive trend of change. ③ Slope was the primary factor influencing the spatial variation of habitat quality and interacted significantly with other factors. Therefore, in the future planning and construction of the Pinglu Canal, it is essential to exercise restraint in the incremental amount of construction land, maintain ecological land with high habitat quality, and avoid over-development of areas.