[Land Cover Simulation and Carbon Stock Assessment in Huainan City Based on FLUS- InVEST Model].

Abstract

To explore the impact of land use change on carbon storage, taking Huainan City as an example, the future land use simulation （FLUS） model was used to simulate the spatial distribution of land use in 2030 under the inertia development scenario, farmland protection scenario, and ecological priority scenario. By combining this result with the integrated valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs （InVEST） model, the carbon storage of the three scenarios in 1990, 2000, 2010, 2020, and 2030 was estimated. The study produced the following results： ① The main land type in Huainan City is cropland, which accounts for more than 75% of the total area. From 1990 to 2020, the area of cropland, grassland, and forest land in Huainan City continued to decrease, while the area of construction land continued to increase. The main land type transfer was the conversion of cropland to construction land. Compared with the other scenarios, the farmland protection scenario can better promote the increase of farmland area and effectively suppress the expansion of construction land. ② From 1990 to 2020, the carbon storage in Huainan City decreased by 8.29×10⁵ t, with a continuous decreasing trend. Cropland was the main carbon reservoir in Huainan City, and the conversion of cropland to construction land was the main reason for the decrease in carbon storage in Huainan City. ③ The carbon stocks in Huainan City under the 2030 inertia development scenario, cropland protection scenario, and ecological priority scenario are 50 766×10³, 50 822.21×10³, and 50 597.95×10³ t, respectively. The carbon storage decreases compared to the level in 2020 under the three scenarios, among which the cropland protection scenario has the most significant inhibitory effect on the reduction of carbon storage. In the future, prioritizing the protection of cropland should be considered.