The hidden seasonality of pharyngitis and tonsillitis: a recurring early-summer wave of unclear aetiology.

IF 2.2 4区 医学 Q3 INFECTIOUS DISEASES
Marcin Piotr Walkowiak, Jarosław Walkowiak, Jarosław Szydłowski, Dariusz Walkowiak
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Abstract

Limited studies on the seasonality of pharyngitis and tonsillitis suggest subtle but unexplained fluctuations in case numbers that deviate from patterns seen in other respiratory diagnoses. Data on weekly acute respiratory infection diagnoses from 2010-2022, provided by the Polish National Healthcare Fund, included a total of 360 million visits. Daily mean temperature and relative humidity were sourced from the Copernicus Climate Data Store. Seasonal pattern was estimated using the STL model, while the impact of temperature was calculated with SARIMAX. A recurring early-summer wave of an unspecified pathogen causing pharyngitis and tonsillitis was identified. The strongest pattern was observed in children under 10, though other age groups also showed somewhat elevated case numbers. The reproductive number of the pathogen is modulated by warmer temperatures; however, summer holidays and pandemic restrictions interrupt its spread. The infection wave is relatively flat, suggesting either genuinely slow spread or multiple waves of related pathogens. Symptomatic data unambiguously demonstrate existence of pathogens of quite distinct characteristics. Given its consistent year-to-year pattern, identifying these potential pathogens could enhance respective treatment, including antibiotic therapy.

隐藏的季节性咽炎和扁桃体炎:一个反复出现的初夏波病因不明。
对咽炎和扁桃体炎季节性的有限研究表明,病例数的微妙但无法解释的波动与其他呼吸道诊断的模式不同。波兰国家卫生保健基金提供的2010-2022年每周急性呼吸道感染诊断数据包括总共3.6亿次就诊。日平均温度和相对湿度来源于哥白尼气候数据库。利用STL模型估算季节特征,利用SARIMAX模型计算温度的影响。一个反复出现的初夏波未指明病原体引起咽炎和扁桃体炎被确定。在10岁以下的儿童中观察到最强烈的模式,尽管其他年龄组的病例数也有所增加。病原体的繁殖数量受到温度升高的调节;然而,暑假和大流行限制措施阻断了其传播。感染波相对平缓,表明要么是真正缓慢传播,要么是相关病原体的多波传播。有症状的资料明确地证明了具有明显特征的病原体的存在。鉴于其年复一年的一致模式,识别这些潜在病原体可以加强各自的治疗,包括抗生素治疗。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
Epidemiology and Infection
Epidemiology and Infection 医学-传染病学
CiteScore
4.10
自引率
2.40%
发文量
366
审稿时长
3-6 weeks
期刊介绍: Epidemiology & Infection publishes original reports and reviews on all aspects of infection in humans and animals. Particular emphasis is given to the epidemiology, prevention and control of infectious diseases. The scope covers the zoonoses, outbreaks, food hygiene, vaccine studies, statistics and the clinical, social and public-health aspects of infectious disease, as well as some tropical infections. It has become the key international periodical in which to find the latest reports on recently discovered infections and new technology. For those concerned with policy and planning for the control of infections, the papers on mathematical modelling of epidemics caused by historical, current and emergent infections are of particular value.
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