Suitability framework for selecting MCDA methods in energy planning problems

Abstract

Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) techniques are extensively used across diverse fields, including energy planning. Current frameworks for selecting the most suitable MCDA method tend to be overly complex, excessively general with limited criteria, not tailored to specific problem domains, or demand high levels of technical expertise. This article introduces a suitability framework to help choose the most appropriate MCDA method for energy planning. The framework incorporates decision problem variables (PVs) alongside the commonly employed MCDA method variables (MVs). The process involves identifying 20 frequently used MCDA methods in energy, analysing 14 suitability variables to compare these methods, and describing each method based on these variables. This includes determining the expected properties of the decision problem in relation to the suitability variables, deriving consistency values, and calculating importance scores (ISs) for each method. The framework and the accompanying Excel tool—the MCDA Index of Suitability (MIST)—were applied to identify the most suitable method for energy transition decisions in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), where TOPSIS proved to be the most appropriate. The case study application and sensitivity analysis using different weights demonstrate the framework's stability and robustness in recommending appropriate methods for decision-making, especially for top-ranking methods. The study advocates for the utilization of the framework within and beyond the energy sector, using specific context-expected properties to ensure proper method selection. Furthermore, the set of methods can be expanded to include newer versions of existing techniques.