Assessing the Global Burden of Rotavirus-Induced Diarrheal Diseases: Trends From 1990 to 2021 and Projections for 2050

Abstract

This study utilizes Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) 2021 data to analyze trends and predictions related to rotavirus-induced diarrheal diseases. We extracted data from GBD 2021 to assess overall and regional trends in rotavirus-induced diarrheal diseases. We calculated relative risks associated with age, period, and birth cohort, and fitted curves relating disease burden to the Sociodemographic Index (SDI) for various countries, with predictions extending to 2050. In 2021, ~170 000 deaths globally were attributed to rotavirus-induced diarrheal diseases. While the global burden has significantly declined since 1990, populations in low SDI regions remain heavily affected, and an upward trend is observed in High SDI regions. Newborns aged 0–6 days are particularly vulnerable, with the disability-adjusted life years (DALY) rate decreasing as age increases. For those aged 45 and older, the burden rises steadily, peaking at ages 80–90. Predictions suggest a continued decline by 2050. Despite progress in rotavirus prevention, economic challenges in High SDI regions threaten healthcare funding and increase transmission risks. Ongoing global economic downturns and conflicts may hinder efforts, underscoring the need for informed policy formulation to address these challenges effectively.