Analysis of Changes in Fractional Vegetation Cover (FVC) and the Impacts of Various Drivers in Subtropical Ecological Civilization Areas of Southern China

Abstract

Aim

The Pilot Area for Subtropical Ecological Civilization in Southern China has made significant strides in ecological conservation through ecological projects and forest rights reform. This study assesses FVC dynamics to evaluate the relative impacts of climate change and human activities on vegetation restoration, aiming to inform optimised management strategies.

Location

Fujian Province, China.

Time Period

2000–2023.

Major Taxa Studies

Fractional vegetation cover (FVC).

Methods

We utilised the pixel dichotomy method to derive FVC from MODIS13A2 data (2000–2023) within the Google Earth Engine platform. To evaluate the impacts of climate change and human activities on vegetation restoration, we applied slope trend analysis in conjunction with the Mann-Kendall mutation test.

Results

(1) From 2000 to 2023, Vegetation Restoration in Fujian Province exhibited pronounced spatial heterogeneity. Approximately 72.65% of the region exhibited an increasing trend in FVC, with over 80% of the study area maintaining moderate to high levels of vegetation cover. In contrast, the southeastern coastal areas showed slower gains. (2) Approximately 69.55% of the changes in vegetation cover were attributed to the combined influence of human activities and climate change, with human activities contributing more significantly to vegetation restoration than climate change (67.88% vs. 64.14%). (3) Within the 40%–100% contribution range, the proportion of areas where human activities predominantly influenced changes in FVC was higher than that influenced by climate change (69.89% vs. 51.12%). (4) Although the total area of forests, shrublands and grasslands in Fujian Province declined during this period, the overall increase in FVC underscores the effectiveness of ecological restoration programs such as the Grain for Green Initiative. These findings indicate that even under substantial human disturbances, well-targeted and effectively implemented ecological policies can act as key drivers of vegetation recovery.

Main Conclusions

This study highlights that even under intense human disturbance, well-targeted and robust ecological policies remain the primary driving force behind vegetation recovery in subtropical ecological civilisation pilot zones. It underscores the importance of integrating climate adaptation strategies with human interventions to achieve effective ecological management, offering valuable insights and replicable pathways for vegetation restoration in other ecologically sensitive regions.