Spatial risk of pathogen transmission from cattle to vulnerable and endangered wild bovids in Thailand

Abstract

The interaction between livestock and wildlife causes challenges for wildlife conservation and public health. Mapping interface areas is essential for prioritizing disease surveillance, implementing mitigation measures, and developing targeted control programs to protect threatened wildlife. We used spatial overlays of habitat suitability to predict interface areas with high risk of pathogen transmission for three Thai wild bovids (gaur [Bos gaurus], banteng [Bos javanicus] and wild water buffalo [Bubalus arnee]) and domestic cattle. We assumed that domestic cattle are the reservoir of important bovine infectious diseases and that high cattle density is a proxy for a higher transmission risk. We calculated the interface inside and outside Thai protected areas and classified these by land use types. Then, we counted the number of bovine infectious disease occurrences reported in high-risk areas. Our study indicated that the highest risk areas for these species are at the forest edges where high habitat suitability and cattle densities overlap. Suitable habitats for wild water buffalo had the largest proportion of high-risk areas (9%), while gaur and banteng had similar risk areas (4%). Kuiburi National Park had the largest risk area (274 km²) for gaur and banteng, whereas the largest risk area for wild water buffalo overlapped with Huai Thabthan-Had Samran by 126 km². Cropland and unclassified forests had the highest percentage of interface areas, indicating a higher risk of pathogen transmission. Our results highlight how habitat suitability analyses could help infectious disease prevention and control strategies and may also support wild bovid conservation initiatives.