The impact of war on tourism: A synthetic control and causal configuration analysis

IF 7.8 1区管理学 Q1 HOSPITALITY, LEISURE, SPORT & TOURISM

Annals of Tourism Research Pub Date : 2025-08-14 DOI:10.1016/j.annals.2025.104014

Peng Hu, Derek D. Wang

引用次数: 0

Abstract

This study scrutinizes the causal impacts of 115 armed conflicts on tourism demand in 16 countries using the synthetic control method. Results show differential impacts of conflicts across the countries. Nine countries experienced significant tourism disruptions, with an average loss of 45 % in tourist arrivals and 57 % in tourism receipts. Negative effects could persist for up to five years, or even longer, post-conflict. Conversely, seven countries showed no discernable tourism changes. We investigate the causal pathways behind the differential impacts of wars through fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis. We find that negative effects ensued under the condition of a sufficient number of attraction sites in the affected country coupled with either short distances to conflict zones or high conflict frequency and intensity.

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战争对旅游业的影响：综合控制与因果配置分析

本研究采用综合控制方法，考察了16个国家115起武装冲突对旅游需求的因果影响。结果显示，冲突对各国的影响是不同的。9个国家经历了严重的旅游中断，游客人数平均减少45%，旅游收入平均减少57%。冲突后的负面影响可能会持续长达五年，甚至更长时间。相反，有7个国家的旅游业没有明显变化。我们通过模糊集定性比较分析来研究战争差异影响背后的因果途径。我们发现，在受影响国家有足够数量的景点，加上距离冲突地区较近或冲突频率和强度高的情况下，会产生负面影响。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Annals of Tourism Research Multiple-

CiteScore

19.10

自引率

9.10%

发文量

135

审稿时长

42 days

期刊介绍： The Annals of Tourism Research is a scholarly journal that focuses on academic perspectives related to tourism. The journal defines tourism as a global economic activity that involves travel behavior, management and marketing activities of service industries catering to consumer demand, the effects of tourism on communities, and policy and governance at local, national, and international levels. While the journal aims to strike a balance between theory and application, its primary focus is on developing theoretical constructs that bridge the gap between business and the social and behavioral sciences. The disciplinary areas covered in the journal include, but are not limited to, service industries management, marketing science, consumer marketing, decision-making and behavior, business ethics, economics and forecasting, environment, geography and development, education and knowledge development, political science and administration, consumer-focused psychology, and anthropology and sociology.