Prediction of Apophis’s deformation-driven rotational evolution during its closest encounter to the Earth in 2029

Abstract

In 2029, the near-Earth asteroid (99942) Apophis approaches the Earth within six Earth radii. This opportunity is one of the rarest natural experiments that we can use to better characterize a small body through telescopic observations and space missions. Earlier geological investigations consistently suggested that major geological processes might not occur on Apophis during this closest encounter, including surface processing and interior deformation. However, minor resurfacing may occur, depending on local geological conditions. A critical finding is that the rotational evolution occurs due to the tidal effect from the Earth. The present study offers an additional perspective on the rotational evolution, which may vary due to variations in interior properties. Namely, possible deformation processes may change the spin state variation from the rigid body state, even if deformation is not measurable. The effort in this work is to explore this issue using a simplified model, motivated by earlier studies by Hirabayashi (2023) and Taylor et al. (2023). The results show that the deformation-driven spin state change may be possible, depending on Young’s modulus. If this asteroid’s Young’s modulus is $\sim$1 MPa or higher, the spin state only deviates a few degrees from the rigid body state over one year. However, if it is $\sim$10 kPa or less, the spin state deviation may reach a few degrees, even a few days after the closest encounter. Both telescopic observations and space missions can provide strong insights into this phenomenon.