Land-use/land-cover change and its impact on ecosystem carbon storage in Binhai New Area, Tianjin, China from 1985 to 2060

Abstract

The transformation of Land-Use/Land-Cover Change (LULC) plays a pivotal role in shaping ecosystem carbon storage, yet quantitative assessments of its effects and future trends remain limited. Given China’s targets of reaching carbon peak by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060, understanding these dynamics is crucial. This study focuses on the Binhai New Area of Tianjin, China, using remote-sensing imagery to analyze LULC data from 1985 to 2020. We forecasted land use patterns for 2030 and 2060 across three scenarios: baseline trend scenario (BTS), priority ecological scenario (PES), and priority urbanization scenario (PUS), employing the Patch-generated Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model. Changes in ecosystem carbon storage were evaluated using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model. A net reduction of 1.31 Tg C was observed in ecosystem carbon storage over the 35-year period (1985–2020), mainly because of the transformation of all land types into built-up land, led predominantly by dry farmland conversion. By 2030, ecosystem carbon storage decreased by 0.94 Tg C under the BTS and 2.15 Tg C under the PUS, but increased by 0.11 Tg C under the PES. By 2060, reductions were 0.96 Tg C (BTS) and 3.15 Tg C (PUS), while the PES showed only a 0.29 Tg C decline. These results emphasize the importance of ecological conservation in reducing declines in ecosystem carbon storage. Therefore, under China’s dual-carbon targets, the PES should be prioritized in future land-use planning to enhance carbon sequestration and support sustainability goals.