Fragmentation and complexity as obstacles to the beyond GDP transition

Abstract

Calls to adopt alternative measures of progress beyond Gross Domestic Product (GDP) have increased over time because of well-documented limitations of GDP in capturing social and environmental aspects of societal well-being. Despite the availability of numerous alternative measures, none have been widely adopted by policymakers or become prominent in the social discourse. We develop a causal map to provide a systems perspective explanation for the increasing number of alternative measures and their low adoption. Causal mapping helped identify the underlying system structure and to present a coherent and integrated understanding of earlier work. To ground the causal map, we reviewed and integrated the extant literature on beyond GDP adoption and implementation. Our analysis highlights that continuous calls for the development of broader beyond GDP measures may have the paradoxical effect of strengthening GDP use. The numerous existing alternative measures of progress and the steady introduction of new measures have fragmented the beyond GDP message. The need to differentiate from existing measures creates pressure to add new elements and undermines convergence towards an easy-to-understand beyond GDP measure. The systems analysis explains the resistance to the well-intentioned efforts to develop alternative measures of progress and shows the importance of redirecting this effort towards building a strong consensus around one or a handful of alternative measures to activate the diffusion process.