Wisconsin policies shift handgun purchasing behavior 2000-2024.

Abstract

Introduction: Firearm policies can directly impact manufacturing, sales, and accessibility of weapons. In Wisconsin, there were 3 statewide policy changes since 2011 that may have impacted firearm access: 1) legalization of concealed carry weapons [CCW], 2) repeal of 48-hour waiting periods to purchase a handgun, and 3) the COVID-19 pandemic stay-at-home order. The current study examined the impact of these policies on handgun purchases in WI and the association with firearm deaths.

Methods: Background checks for handguns were examined using monthly counts (2000-2024) from the National Instant Criminal Background Check System. Firearm deaths were extracted from the Wisconsin Violent Death Reporting System (2004-2021). Seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models were used to forecast background check levels from one policy period to the next. Annual firearm deaths were correlated with annual handgun background checks.

Results: There was a significant increase in observed handgun background checks compared to forecasted after each policy period (after CCW policy: mean increase = 204.3%, mean absolute percentage error, MAPE = 23.5; after 48-hour repeal: mean increase = 12.8%; MAPE = 20.27; after COVID-19 stay-at-home order: mean increase = 78.6%; MAPE = 43.20). Annual background checks were strongly correlated with annual firearm deaths (r = .887).

Conclusions: The CCW policy had the strongest long-term relationship to the increase in handgun background checks. With each policy change, background check levels increased. Greater availability of firearms increases risk of firearm death and the strong association of firearm purchasing and firearm deaths warrants attention to relevant policies in Wisconsin.