Contrasting destinations? Emerging intention trajectories of latent family size

Abstract

Although fertility levels in European countries, including Hungary, have long been well below the two children per woman required for reproduction, the two-child family ideal has dominated views about the ideal number of children for decades. Our aim was to identify potential alternative trajectories regarding the intended number of children, specifically deliberate childlessness or a preference for large families. Using group-based trajectory analysis, we explored trajectories and several demographic, socioeconomic and attitudinal characteristics associated with them using a subsample of people aged 18–33 from five waves (2001–2016) of the Hungarian Generations and Genders Survey. Our findings reveal that among young people without children at age 18–33, approximately one in ten follow a trajectory of deliberate childlessness, with over a quarter of 18–33-year-olds are on a trajectory towards a large family. The associated criteria largely align with our expectations: age, partnership status, socialisation, educational attainment and support for career orientation significantly influence trajectory selection. However, some unexpected effects emerged, particularly with regard to the effect of education in the case of the voluntary childlessness trajectory.