The Weather model (Indus Village): Procedural generation of daily weather for the simulation of small-scale socioecological systems

Abstract

This paper describes the Weather model, a procedural generation model that creates realistic daily weather data. The Weather model generates synthetic weather time series (solar radiation, temperature, precipitation) using algorithms based on sinusoidal and double logistic functions, incorporating stochastic variation to mimic unpredictable weather patterns. It aims to provide realistic yet flexible weather inputs for exploring diverse climate scenarios. The model is implemented in NetLogo and R, offering a computationally efficient method to generate extensive weather data for socioecological simulations. We further discuss the caveats and advantages of the procedural approach over data-driven or mechanistic methods for simulating past climates in complex systems. The Weather model was designed as a component of the Indus Village model, which is a larger simulation framework studying the Indus Civilisation, but it can be used independently.