Epidemiology of fatal and nonfatal community firearm violence in New York City, 2019-2023.

IF 2.2 3区医学 Q2 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH

Injury Epidemiology Pub Date : 2025-08-08 DOI:10.1186/s40621-025-00590-0

Loren L Adams, Vanya Jones, Daniel W Webster, Michael R Desjardins, Cassandra K Crifasi

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Background: Endemic levels of community firearm violence in United States cities disproportionately burden certain sociodemographic groups. Nonfatal injuries are an understudied aspect of firearm violence. Police data in a large and heterogenous place like New York City (NYC) provide the unique opportunity to use a single data source to measure fatal and nonfatal community firearm violence.

Methods: The study analyzed epidemiologic trends in fatal and nonfatal community firearm violence using the publicly available New York Police Department (NYPD) Shooting Incident Dataset from 2019 to 2023. The analyses tabulated shooting victims by sociodemographic variables (age group, race and ethnicity, and sex) and case fatality rates, mapped shootings by census tract, and described social determinants of health (SDOH)-poverty, educational attainment, unemployment-in the census tracts where shootings occurred.

Results: From 2019 to 2023, the annual average number of shooting victims in NYC was 1,578. Shootings doubled from 2019 to 2020 though trended downward from 2021 to 2022 to 2023. Four out of five shootings were nonfatal. Males, people ages 18-24, and non-Hispanic Black people in NYC experienced the greatest proportion of shootings. Shootings coincided with census tracts also experiencing above median percentages of adverse SDOH (i.e., highest levels of unemployment, poverty, and low educational attainment).

Discussion: Nonfatal injuries are an important component of community firearm violence to monitor. The findings identify inequities in community firearm violence by sex, age group, and race and ethnicity in NYC. One contributor to racial inequities in violence is the impact of place-based SDOH in certain NYC neighborhoods.

Conclusions: This study leverages NYPD data to estimate the full magnitude of violence by tracking nonfatal in addition to fatal injuries. The study emphasizes the need for researchers to go beyond individual demography and better understand the place-based social determinants of firearm violence.

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2019-2023年纽约市致命和非致命社区枪支暴力流行病学

背景：美国城市社区枪支暴力的地方性水平对某些社会人口群体造成了不成比例的负担。非致命伤害是枪支暴力的一个未被充分研究的方面。在纽约市这样一个庞大而异构的地方，警察数据提供了独特的机会，可以使用单一数据源来衡量致命和非致命的社区枪支暴力。方法：该研究使用2019年至2023年纽约警察局（NYPD）公开的枪击事件数据集分析了致命和非致命社区枪支暴力的流行病学趋势。这些分析按社会人口统计学变量（年龄组、种族和民族、性别）和病死率将枪击受害者制成表格，按人口普查区绘制枪击地图，并描述枪击案发生地人口普查区的健康社会决定因素（SDOH）——贫困、受教育程度、失业。结果：2019年至2023年，纽约市年平均枪击案受害者人数为1578人。枪击事件从2019年到2020年翻了一番，但从2021年到2022年再到2023年呈下降趋势。五分之四的枪击事件没有造成人员死亡。纽约市的男性、18-24岁人群和非西班牙裔黑人遭受枪击的比例最高。枪击事件发生的同时，人口普查区也经历了高于中位数的不良SDOH百分比（即最高水平的失业、贫困和低教育程度）。讨论：非致命伤害是社区枪支暴力监测的重要组成部分。调查结果确定了纽约市按性别、年龄组、种族和民族划分的社区枪支暴力的不平等。种族暴力不平等的一个原因是纽约市某些社区基于地点的SDOH的影响。结论：本研究利用纽约警察局的数据，通过跟踪除致命伤害外的非致命伤害来估计暴力的全部程度。该研究强调，研究人员需要超越个人人口统计，更好地了解枪支暴力的基于地点的社会决定因素。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Injury Epidemiology Medicine-Medicine (all)

CiteScore

3.20

自引率

4.50%

发文量

审稿时长

13 weeks

期刊介绍： Injury Epidemiology is dedicated to advancing the scientific foundation for injury prevention and control through timely publication and dissemination of peer-reviewed research. Injury Epidemiology aims to be the premier venue for communicating epidemiologic studies of unintentional and intentional injuries, including, but not limited to, morbidity and mortality from motor vehicle crashes, drug overdose/poisoning, falls, drowning, fires/burns, iatrogenic injury, suicide, homicide, assaults, and abuse. We welcome investigations designed to understand the magnitude, distribution, determinants, causes, prevention, diagnosis, treatment, prognosis, and outcomes of injuries in specific population groups, geographic regions, and environmental settings (e.g., home, workplace, transport, recreation, sports, and urban/rural). Injury Epidemiology has a special focus on studies generating objective and practical knowledge that can be translated into interventions to reduce injury morbidity and mortality on a population level. Priority consideration will be given to manuscripts that feature contemporary theories and concepts, innovative methods, and novel techniques as applied to injury surveillance, risk assessment, development and implementation of effective interventions, and program and policy evaluation.