Developing a tool to predict the likelihood of undergoing orthotopic cardiac transplant from the urgent waitlist - a single centre UK experience.

IF 3.3 3区 医学 Q2 CARDIAC & CARDIOVASCULAR SYSTEMS
Current Problems in Cardiology Pub Date : 2025-10-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-05 DOI:10.1016/j.cpcardiol.2025.103147
Mansimran Singh Dulay, Rishi Patel, Winston Banya, Dharani Yogasivam, Ramey Assaf, Nahal Raza, Andrew Morley-Smith, Fernando Riesgo-Gil, Owais Dar
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Background: Orthotopic Cardiac Transplantation (OCTx) improves survival in advanced heart failure. Currently, a tool in United Kingdom from NHS Blood and Transplant (NHSBT) helps predict likelihood of OCTx from waitlist. However, it does not use predictive variables such as age, or Human Leukocyte Antibody (HLA%). We aimed to develop OCTx predictive models incorporating known prognostic variables at 3-, 6-, 9- and 12-months.

Methods: All patients who were urgent-listed for OCTx at Harefield Hospital between 2014 and 2018 (n = 125) were analysed. Variables included age, gender, blood group (BG), midline sternotomy, ventricular assist device (VAD), body mass index (BMI) and HLA%. Multivariable logistic regression models were constructed following internal validation per timepoint. A separate validation dataset was collected using 52 patients transplanted between 2019 and 2023, to compare model effectiveness against the current NHSBT tool.

Results: At 3-months, variables included were age, gender, sternotomy, BG O and HLA%=0, with model area under curve (AUC) of 0.74 (0.66-0.83 95 % confidence interval [CI]). 6-month model included variables age, gender, BG O, sternotomy, BMI and HLA%=0, model AUC of 0.80 (0.72-0.89 95 % CI). 9-month model used age, BG O, VAD, BMI and HLA%=0, giving an AUC of 0.80 (0.71-0.89 95 % CI). The final 12-month model included midline sternotomy, BMI and HLA%=0 and HLA%=1-24, with AUC 0.78 (0.68-0.88 95 % CI). Our predictive models recorded an 85 % win-ratio compared to the NHSBT tool.

Conclusion: We were able to develop models to predict urgent OCTx, with greater accuracy than the currently available tool. Multicentre external validation would help enable its wider implementation.

开发一种工具,以预测接受原位心脏移植的可能性从紧急候补名单-单一中心英国的经验。
背景:原位心脏移植(OCTx)可提高晚期心力衰竭患者的生存率。目前,英国NHS血液和移植(NHSBT)的一种工具可以帮助预测候补名单中OCTx的可能性。然而,它没有使用预测变量,如年龄,或人类白细胞抗体(HLA%)。我们的目标是在3、6、9和12个月时建立包含已知预后变量的OCTx预测模型。方法:分析2014-2018年在哈雷菲尔德医院(Harefield Hospital)紧急登记的所有OCTx患者(n=125)。变量包括年龄、性别、血型(BG)、胸骨中线切开术、心室辅助装置(VAD)、体重指数(BMI)和HLA%。在每个时间点进行内部验证后,构建多变量逻辑回归模型。收集了2019-2023年间移植的52例患者的单独验证数据集,以比较模型与当前NHSBT工具的有效性。结果:3个月时,变量包括年龄、性别、胸骨切开术、BG 0、HLA%=0,模型曲线下面积(AUC)为0.74(95%可信区间[CI] 0.66 ~ 0.83)。6个月模型变量包括年龄、性别、BG、胸骨切开术、BMI、HLA%=0,模型AUC为0.80 (95% CI为0.72 ~ 0.89)。9月龄模型采用年龄、BG 0、VAD、BMI和HLA%=0, AUC为0.80 (95% CI 0.71 ~ 0.89)。最终12个月模型包括胸骨中线切开术,BMI和HLA%=0, HLA%=1-24, AUC为0.78 (95% CI为0.68-0.88)。与NHSBT工具相比,我们的预测模型的胜率为85%。结论:我们能够开发预测紧急OCTx的模型,比目前可用的工具具有更高的准确性。多中心外部验证将有助于其更广泛的实施。
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来源期刊
Current Problems in Cardiology
Current Problems in Cardiology 医学-心血管系统
CiteScore
4.80
自引率
2.40%
发文量
392
审稿时长
6 days
期刊介绍: Under the editorial leadership of noted cardiologist Dr. Hector O. Ventura, Current Problems in Cardiology provides focused, comprehensive coverage of important clinical topics in cardiology. Each monthly issues, addresses a selected clinical problem or condition, including pathophysiology, invasive and noninvasive diagnosis, drug therapy, surgical management, and rehabilitation; or explores the clinical applications of a diagnostic modality or a particular category of drugs. Critical commentary from the distinguished editorial board accompanies each monograph, providing readers with additional insights. An extensive bibliography in each issue saves hours of library research.
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